048
FXUS64 KMEG 240359
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1059 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
WEDNESDAY WAS A TALE OF TWO AREAS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH
THOSE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVERAGE BARELY REACHING INTO THE 70S
WHEREAS OTHER LOCATIONS UNDER SUNNY SKIES REACHED THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. CLOUD COVERAGE HAS REMAINED ACROSS GENERALLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER,
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THIS COVERAGE. THE
MAIN QUESTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE IF SOME OF THE CLOUD COVERAGE TO OUR NORTHEAST
WILL BE ABLE TO FILTER BACK INTO THE MID-SOUTH. IF THIS DOES
HAPPEN, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HOWEVER, IF THIS CLOUD
COVERAGE DOES NOT REBUILD THROUGH THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID 80S.
BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RETURN TO ABOVE-NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY, ALLOWING
FOR A FEW WEEK DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW, THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO RETURN SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL STILL LIKELY NOT BRING
WIDESPREAD, MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE AREA.
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD, THINGS DO BECOME QUITE UNCERTAIN. WHILE GUIDANCE DOES
AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM IS HIGHLY VARIABLE. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE IS
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE INTERACTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
HURRICANE POLO IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN, WHICH COULD PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW THIS TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS QUITE
SPREAD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ENS GUIDANCE
FAVORS A SHARPER COOL DOWN THAT REMAINS POSTFRONTAL, WHILE GEFS
GUIDANCE HAS A MORE SHALLOW COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
REBOUNDING AFTER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL GET OUR FIRST SHOT
OF SOME MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION, BUT THE TIMING IS STILL
COMPLEX. ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE WILL HOPEFULLY BE GAINED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS AS MORE GUIDANCE COMES IN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
A PESKY MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED TO INFILTRATE SOUTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS EVENTUALLY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS, HOWEVER,
SOME GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS
LONGER. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING FOG AWAY FROM TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOVE 40% ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
FALLING JUST BELOW 40% INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL LIKELY WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AEH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page