162
FXUS64 KMEG 241800
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
100 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO RETURN NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
ANOTHER EXPANSIVE STRATUS SHIELD CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING, VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXITING TO OUR EAST WHILE RIDGING
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE,
NORTHEASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION. ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUD COVER WILL
THEREFORE FAVOR A COOLER FORECAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
DON'T SEE CLOUDS MIX OUT AND ERODE AS MUCH, BUT SATELLITE
OBSERVATION SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE REGION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
SEE THE STRATUS SCATTER OUT. IN ALL, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI POTENTIALLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S.
THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL THEN SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EAST INTO THIS WEEKEND, THEN WEAKEN AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ROTATES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST. CONSEQUENTLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TOO FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT
LEVELS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY HANGING
OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S. IN PAST FORECASTS, SUNDAY HAS BEEN OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE AT RAINFALL, BUT FORECAST TRENDS HAVE MOVED
TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST WITH THIS MORNING'S NBM RUN DISPLAYING
POPS BELOW 10% AREA WIDE. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TREND
TOWARDS RIDGING TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST. INTO NEXT WEEK, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN AND BRING A QUICK WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING TO BE
TUESDAY WHERE NBM HIGHS HAVE A 50% - 70% CHANCE TO ECLIPSE
90 DEGREES.
BEYOND TUESDAY, NBM GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A 40% - 50% CHANCE OF
90+ DEGREE HIGHS. HOWEVER, THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMPS DRASTICALLY TO BETWEEN 15 - 20 DEGREES DURING
THIS PERIOD. THE PRIMARY EXPLANATION FOR THIS INCREASE IN
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HAS TO DO WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
HURRICANE POLO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES. DEPENDING ON THIS INTERACTION, A SURFACE CYCLONE MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS, WHICH HAS LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
WEATHER AFTER TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. AS OF THIS MORNING, ENSEMBLES
ARE SPLIT DOWN THE MIDDLE ON EITHER THE TWO SYSTEMS MERGING OR
POLO REMAINING OUT AT SEA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THE
TWO SYSTEMS ARE ABLE TO PHASE AND PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, THEN THE END OF THE FORECAST WOULD TREND TOWARDS MORE
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS, THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS REGARDING EXACT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AFTER TUESDAY ARE STILL EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN, BUT FORECAST
VARIABILITY SHOULD RISE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, OFFERING BETTER
INSIGHT AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
A STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH
WEAK CAA LIMITING THE WARMUP THAT WOULD PROMOTE MIXING. A RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD OVERPOWER THE WEAKENING CAA
TONIGHT, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT MEM AND JBR. FARTHER
EAST, AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CIGS ARE LOWER AT MKL AND TUP. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
THESE EASTERN LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT, BUT THE RIDGE SHOULD
FINALLY RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST, UP TO 8 KTS
TODAY AND BELOW 5 KTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE 40%
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONGSIDE LIGHT, NORTHEASTERLY 20 FOOT WINDS.
WETTING RAINS WILL BE ABSENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
RAINS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NOW LOOKING LESS LIKELY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page