161
FXUS64 KMEG 250401 CCA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1101 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- A LARGELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
FRIDAY WAS A NEAR RINSE AND REPEAT OF THURSDAY WITH MUCH OF THE
MID-SOUTH STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 80S THANKS TO CLOUD COVER.
CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY ERODED OUT LEAVING A PLEASANT NIGHT WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH POCKETS OF
CLEARING SKIES AMIDST A SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH, ESPECIALLY IN LOW- LYING
AREAS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY LIFT SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE THANKS TO MIXING.
WE REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEMS, A RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADEN MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEADING TO A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND, PUSHING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. COME LATE SATURDAY, THIS RIDGE
LOOKS TO GET SHOVED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW (NOR'EASTER) PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHEAST NUDGING US HERE IN THE MID-SOUTH BACK INTO UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COULD GIVE US ENOUGH
LIFT FOR A FEW POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY WEEK.
THOUGH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TO HELP ALLEVIATE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITH A SURFACE LOW, BUT TIMING AND
OVERALL STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
HURRICANE POLO IN THE PACIFIC. WE COULD FINALLY SEE SOME
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, BUT THIS WILL BE
GREATLY DEPENDENT ON POLO'S INFLUENCE. THERE IS A PRETTY
MENTIONABLE (15-20 DEGREE) TEMPERATURE SPREAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD. ENS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
COOLER SOLUTION WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHEREAS THE GEFS
SOLUTION FAVORS A WARMER TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COME
WEDNESDAY. BOTTOM LINE, THIS REMAINS A WAIT AND SEE GAME, BUT ONE
THING'S FOR SURE, WE DO NOT FORESEE RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS TO
ROUND OUT OUR WEEK. DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES AS SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE IN LINE.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
OUTSIDE OF OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AT MKL/TUP, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT INTERMITTENT DROPS TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AT A MINIMUM. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE 40%
THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL BELOW
40% IN SOME AREAS THIS WEEKEND, BUT LIGHT 20FT WINDS SHOULD
ALLEVIATE CONCERNS. OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY
MIDWEEK AT EARLIEST.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...AEH
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