749
FXUS64 KMEG 270504
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1204 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S.
- RAIN SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN CANADA AS OF THIS EVENING, KEEPING EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT, A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SITS JUST OFF
THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE WITH BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS TO
REMAIN COOL WITH ELEVATED, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHS IN THE
80S. DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING AFTERNOON
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE 20 F, WILL VERY LIKELY EVAPORATE ANY
ATTEMPTS FOR RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND. ADDITIONALLY, SUCH DRY
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW
30%, POTENTIALLY DROPPING BELOW 20% IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THIS PRESENTS ABOVE-AVERAGE FIRE DANGER DUE TO A
LACK OF WIDESPREAD, APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE HEAT WAVE
EARLIER IN SEPTEMBER.
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL KICK OFF AHEAD OF THE MODIFIED TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL IN TURN LEAD TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO THE REGION. A WARM UP IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE AS WELL, BUT DIURNAL
MIXING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEP DEWPOINTS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
WARRANT ANY HEAT INDEX CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH,
GENERALLY LIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, AND
EVEN A FEW DETERMINISTIC RUNS, SHOW THE TROUGHING BECOMING CUTOFF
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THIS SCENARIO, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARMER, MORE HUMID WEATHER WOULD BE IN STORE. ALL OF THIS IS TO
SAY THAT THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAIN MIRED IN
UNCERTAINTY THAT HAS DRASTIC EFFECTS ON OUR TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST, BUT WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST,
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT SATURDAY, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
EXPLODES, CASTING FURTHER DOUBT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AND
SURFACE PATTERNS INTO EARLY OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NNE/NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS
ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR
30% ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
LOWEST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES-GENERALLY BELOW 30%-WILL
OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A 40% TO 50% CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED AREAS TO DROP BELOW
20%. ADDITIONALLY, 10-HOUR FUELS AREAWIDE WILL DROP TO NEAR 10%
THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM, DRY WEATHER REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WETTING RAINS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY AT THE
EARLIEST.
THEREFORE, FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS UNTIL HIGHER GULF MOISTURE CAN ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.
FORTUNATELY, 20-FOOT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION, BUT THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC
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