042
FXUS64 KMEG 272336
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40, WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. USE CAUTION IF BURNING
OUTDOORS AND OBEY ALL LOCAL BURN BANS.
- A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S.
- RAIN SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THIS MORNING. ONGOING
CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS CONTINUES TO STRETCH A THICK
CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE REGION, LIMITING HEATING EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FEW CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED, BUT HEATING TODAY
SHOULD REMAIN TAMED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S, WHICH WILL AID IN RH VALUES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING DRY AND COMFORTABLE
WEATHER IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AND ADVECT WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR BEGINNING TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CREEP TOWARDS
OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES. HUMIDITY VALUES AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
A CUTOFF LOW WILL LINGER AND WEAKEN OVER TEXAS NEXT WEEK, WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM POLO TO WORK WITH, BUT THE DETAILS ARE
MURKY ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO HOW LONG IT LINGERS. THE GFS
MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE, AND THERE SEEMS TO BE A BETTER
CONSENSUS FOR A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION, LIKE THE ECMWF AND EC-
AIFS SUGGEST. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE UNCERTAIN. THE UNCERTAINTY GREATLY AFFECTS
OUR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST, BUT WHILE THE SYSTEM
REMAINS TO OUR WEST, EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE LONG RANGE NOTED BY 10-15 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES
LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BE SURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FORECAST AS WE MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM.
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING, THEN INCREASE
BACK TO NNE WINDS BETWEEN 5-8 KTS ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR
30% ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
LOWEST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES-GENERALLY BELOW 30%-WILL
OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A 40% TO 50% CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED AREAS TO DROP BELOW
20%. ADDITIONALLY, 10-HOUR FUELS AREAWIDE WILL DROP TO NEAR 10%
THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM, DRY WEATHER REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WETTING RAINS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY AT THE
EARLIEST.
THEREFORE, FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS UNTIL HIGHER GULF MOISTURE CAN ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.
FORTUNATELY, 20-FOOT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER 10 MILES
PER HOUR THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WETTING RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION, BUT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CJC
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