021
FXUS64 KMEG 120426
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1126 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WELL ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY, BRINGING
PLEASANT AND FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
AFTER A VERY WARM OCTOBER DAY, A CALM NIGHT IS ON DISPLAY ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ALONG A VERY SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION, LOW-LYING AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER
MAY SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE AREA. WELL
ABOVE TEMPERATURE NORMAL DAYS ARE AHEAD AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BROADEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE
WESTERN GULF. WE'LL BE FLIRTING WITH POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE LOW
90S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS LITTLE TO NO
SURFACE NOR UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT FOR ANY INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ONE THING OF NOTE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN GULF
MOISTURE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INCREASING OUR DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID 60S INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LEADING TO MORE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AS OPPOSED TO THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WE
FELT LAST WEEK. COME WEDNESDAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR
AS A SURFACE FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. WE'RE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH THE LATEST LREF GUIDANCE HINTING AT <20%
CHANCE OF SBCAPE >500 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK WIND SHEAR >25 KTS IN OUR
AREA. AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS GO, LATEST NBM PROBS HAVE A 30-
50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1/2 AN INCH IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THOUGH THESE AMOUNTS ARE NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT, WE'LL
APPRECIATE ANY RAINFALL WE CAN GET AS MANY AREAS NORTH OF I-
40 ARE CURRENTLY UNDER SEVERE (D2) TO EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WE LOSE OUR INSTABILITY.
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AND
SURFACE LEVEL PATTERN, ENSEMBLES ARE BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH A
COOLER SOLUTION. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BEGIN DIGGING
INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE ROCKIES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. OUR NEXT SHOT AT TRUE FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S LOOKS LIKELY NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LOOKS
ALMOST POLAR IN NATURE. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S COME SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, FOR THIS, WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
LIGHT/CALM WINDS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT AT
TUP AND MKL. AT 04Z, KNQA AND KGWX VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWED
SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, RESPECTIVELY. THIS
IMPLIES A LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN THE TWO RADARS, WITH
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS OFF THE SURFACE TO PARTIALLY
MIX DOWN. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT EAST ON MONDAY, WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT JBR AND MEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO
AROUND OR BELOW 30 PERCENT MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS. LUCKILY, 20 FT
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT LEADING TO MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
INCREASED MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO AROUND 35-40 PERCENT. OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 WEDNESDAY, AN OVERALL
DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB
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