190
FXUS64 KMEG 130422
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1122 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- RECORD-SETTING HEAT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE MID-SOUTH.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
RECORD-SETTING HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK UNDERNEATH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL MIRROR EARLY SUMMER AS INCREASED
MOISTURE PRODUCES HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AT THIS TIME, BUT AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON
THURSDAY, TREKKING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EJECT A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON
FRIDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL MANIFEST AT THIS TIME
AS 20FT WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THIS, COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS AND DECREASING
DEWPOINTS, MAY NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT ON FRIDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME DUE TO FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINING ABOVE
25 PERCENT.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FEATURES FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO HINT AT A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS MAY INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT GIVEN THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL VFR TO THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASED CUMULUS COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MORE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PRODUCES 20-FT WINDS NEAR 20 MPH IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. FORECAST ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT AND SPREAD
COMPONENT VALUES ARE NEARING THE 90TH PERCENTILE ON FRIDAY,
LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS, DRY
FUELS, AND DECREASING DEW POINTS. FOR NOW, A RED FLAG WARNING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS ABOVE 25 PERCENT. A
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE THE MORE APPROPRIATE FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCT FOR FRIDAY. IMPORTANT NOTE: THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS INCLUDED PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH IN A 40-69% OUTLOOK
FOR OVERLAPPING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
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