935
FXUS64 KMEG 141115
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
615 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE MORNING AND
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TODAY.
- FOR AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS, IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY, WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S
THIS AFTERNOON.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY,
BRINGING AN END TO THE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT. ELEVATED WILDFIRE
DANGER IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY, UNDER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A 593DAM 500MB RIDGE. A CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR
WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MO INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, WHERE THE STRONGER WESTERLIES PREVAIL.
A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST, AIDED BY OUTFLOW
TOWARD MIDMORNING. 00Z CAMS SHOWED A RATHER WIDE VARIATION OF
CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS WITH RESPECT TO STORM TIMING AND COVERAGE
FOR THE MIDSOUTH LATER TODAY. TAKEN TOGETHER, ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUED TO POINT TOWARD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF I-40. WHERE STORMS DON'T SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFY
TEMPERATURES, MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL HELP DRIVE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES AGAIN TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
STORMS CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING, AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. CONCURRENTLY, MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT, SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK NORTH. DRIER SURFACE
AIR OVER CENTRAL MS TODAY WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
THURSDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 90 OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, OUR LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY BEFORE STEEP NORTHERN BRANCH
HEIGHT FALLS DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EARLY
FRIDAY. WITH LIMITED PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE, THIS FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH DRY. DESPITE MUCH COOLER POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES, A
LARGER DEWPOINT DROP WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN TO AS LOW
AS 35 PERCENT PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNLIKE OUR RECENT LOW
HUMIDITY DAYS, FRIDAY WILL BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH
WILL ELEVATE WILDLAND FIRE DANGER.
THE CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND,
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S,
WITH UPPER 30S FORECAST FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. WE DID NOT SEE THE OUTFLOW THAT
WAS FORECAST BY SOME CAMS MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. AS A
RESULT, STORMS MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT FOCUSING INITIAL UPDRAFTS.
NEVERTHELESS, WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN AND ON STATION
PRECIPITATION IS AT JBR. CONTINUED WITH PROB30S AT JBR, MKL AND
MEM FOR TS. STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY
SUNSET. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED NEAR TUP. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS MAY REACH 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE, WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE IN THE 4-7 KT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT
TODAY, FROM OXFORD SOUTH. TO THE NORTH, MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL, SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF I-40. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THURSDAY,
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. POST-
FRONTAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO AS LOW
AS 35 PERCENT OVER THE DELTA, SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH
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