589
FXUS64 KMEG 141743
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1243 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- A NEARBY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
NORTH OF I-40. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY,
BRINGING AN END TO THE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT WITH MUCH COOLER FALL
TEMPERATURES.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ELEVATED 20 FT WINDS MAY RESULT
IN AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH ON
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES A 594 DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE TRAVERSING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI. LATE MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE HIGH NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST AND A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
THE MID-SOUTH OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARE ADVECTING HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S INTO THE REGION WITH 11 AM TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
RETREATING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
HAVE SHOWN CONTINUED WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OF RAIN SHOWERS AS
THEY ENTERED THE MID-SOUTH. POOR LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK SHEAR WILL OFFSET SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RISING AT OR
ABOVE 2000 J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE.
RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, PUSHING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A RELATIVELY DRY
MOISTURE PROFILE. MUCH COOLER FALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE'LL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME LIGHT WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF
TEMPERATURES BELOW 38 DEGREES AVERAGING BETWEEN 30-40 PERCENT.
LONG-TERM ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT DRY WEATHER CONTINUING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE FROM
INTERMITTENT SHRA/TSRA AT MEM/JBR/MKL. SATELLITE AND RADAR
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR, MO, AND WEST TN. HOWEVER, CONVECTION
HAS REMAINED SHALLOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE PRODUCTION OF LIGHTNING,
BUT A FEW DEEPER CELLS HAVE ESTABLISHED THEMSELVES ACROSS CENTRAL
AR UPSTREAM FROM JBR. SO, HAVE REMOVED TSRA FROM BOTH MEM/MKL,
BUT HAVE LEFT A PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT JBR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY -SHRA AT MEM/MKL.
IN THE MEANTIME, CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH 1730Z OBSERVATIONS AT
ALL TAF SITES REPORTING AT 5 KFT OR ABOVE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO LEAVE THE REGION TONIGHT, LIFTING CIGS FURTHER
TOWARDS 10 KFT. BY THURSDAY AT 12Z, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
LEFT THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE OR ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AT BEST.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 30-40 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED 20 FT WINDS MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON
FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
CONFIDENCE IN FIRE CONDITIONS BECOMING CRITICAL ON FRIDAY REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY MITIGATING THE
POTENTIAL.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JAB
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