225
FXUS64 KMEG 150453
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY WILL BRING THE
COOLEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER. SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEKEND, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 30S OVER PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE, TO THE LOWER 40S
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH.
- FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BRING ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER,
PARTICULARLY TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MODERATE BY SUNDOWN FRIDAY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
TODAY (THURSDAY) WILL AGAIN BRING SUMMER-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE MIDSOUTH, BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MID 40S DEWPOINTS OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL MS AROUND JACKSON, WHILE LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. JAN UPPER SOUNDING FROM 12Z
WEDNESDAY SHOWED AN AVERAGE 925-850MB DEWPOINT NEAR 0C. THIS
LAYER WON'T BE QUITE AS DRY OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY, BUT WE'LL
NONETHELESS SEE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT REMAINS A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY MORNING, AIDED BY A DEEP NORTHERN BRANCH LONGWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 18Z GFS
DEPICTED STRATOSPHERIC VORTICITY INCORPORATED INTO THIS TROUGH,
WITH THE DYNAMIC TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE LEVEL DOWN TO 600MB OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. QUITE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND A SIGN OF THE
CHANGING SEASONS.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD SATURDAY,
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
ON SUNDAY, AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. THE NET RESULT FOR THE MIDSOUTH
WILL BE DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS BY SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING THE
DRY AIR TO COOL TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TOWARD SUNRISE.
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL MODIFY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, WITH HIGHS
REACHING NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK,
DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SOME DISPARITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
LOW. THIS TIMING MAY BE SORTED OUT IN THE SUBSEQUENT RUNS, BUT
FOR NOW THE OVERALL TREND OF WARMER TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK APPEARS
TO BE A GOOD BET.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
SITES MAINLY OVER NW TN HAVE BEGUN TO FOG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, BUT FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT TAF SITES DUE TO DRY
AIR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AT AROUND 8-12 KTS BY MID-
MORNING. A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON AT JBR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HEADING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IMPACTING MEM. MVFR
CONDITIONS ALSO BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE AIRSPACE EARLY FRIDAY.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO
WETTING RAINFALL. . RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT
TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. DESPITE MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN DROP
BELOW 40 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS QUITE
STRONG AS ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL GUST IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>051.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH
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