886
FXUS64 KMEG 151126
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BRING ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER,
PARTICULARLY TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MODERATE BY SUNDOWN FRIDAY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
TODAY (THURSDAY) WILL AGAIN BRING SUMMER-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE MIDSOUTH, BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MID 40S DEWPOINTS OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL MS AROUND JACKSON, WHILE LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. JAN UPPER SOUNDING FROM 12Z
WEDNESDAY SHOWED AN AVERAGE 925-850MB DEWPOINT NEAR 0C. THIS
LAYER WON'T BE QUITE AS DRY OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY, BUT WE'LL
NONETHELESS SEE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT REMAINS A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY MORNING, AIDED BY A DEEP NORTHERN BRANCH LONGWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 18Z GFS
DEPICTED STRATOSPHERIC VORTICITY INCORPORATED INTO THIS TROUGH,
WITH THE DYNAMIC TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE LEVEL DOWN TO 600MB OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. QUITE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND A SIGN OF THE
CHANGING SEASONS.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD SATURDAY,
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
ON SUNDAY, AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. THE NET RESULT FOR THE MIDSOUTH
WILL BE DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS BY SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING THE
DRY AIR TO COOL TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TOWARD SUNRISE.
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL MODIFY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, WITH HIGHS
REACHING NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK,
DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SOME DISPARITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
LOW. THIS TIMING MAY BE SORTED OUT IN THE SUBSEQUENT RUNS, BUT
FOR NOW THE OVERALL TREND OF WARMER TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK APPEARS
TO BE A GOOD BET.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AT MEM, MKL, AND JBR. OVERNIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT
THE AIRSPACE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH JBR BY 09Z, BRINGING A
SHARP NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND MVFR CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE BY SUNRISE WITH WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS
OF 20 KTS.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO
WETTING RAINFALL. . RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT
TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. DESPITE MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN DROP
BELOW 40 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS QUITE
STRONG AS ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL GUST IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>051.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ANS
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