458
FXUS64 KMEG 160453 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1153 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
- FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BRING ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER,
PARTICULARLY TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55, AS WINDS
GUST UP TO 30 MPH ALONG DRY FUELS. ELEVATED WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MODERATE BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A MUGGY OCTOBER NIGHT IS PRESENT ACROSS MID-SOUTH AFTER ANOTHER
RECORD-BREAKINGLY WARM DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS, SWEEPS ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SUSTAIN AROUND 15-
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EARLY FRIDAY AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SUNSET. A COMBINATION OF ABNORMALLY DRY FUELS, DECREASED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER THREAT FRIDAY. AVOID ANY RECREATIONAL BURNING AND
PROPERLY EXTINGUISH AND DISPOSE OF CIGARETTES FRIDAY AS WILDFIRES
CAN START EASILY AND SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 15-30 DEGREES LOWER THAN
THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. AS AMPLE DRY
AIR AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT, LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THIS FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AN ALMOST
POLAR IN NATURE AIRMASS WILL TRAIL BEHIND THIS LEADING FRONT
RESULTING IN A BELOW NORMAL WEEKEND WITH COOL MORNINGS AND
PLEASANT DAYS. SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE CHILLIEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AREAS MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE SEEING READINGS
IN THE UPPER 30S AND THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE LOWER 40S. NBM
PROBS HAVE A 30-50% CHANCE OF SEEING LOWS <37 DEGREES OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FROST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AS
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SLIGHTLY EAST OF OUR AREA.
ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT AN OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ACROSS THE CONUS. UNDER THIS PATTERN, DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
EDGE BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. THIS WARMING PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S BY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF AR
AT 04Z, AND WAS CONTINUING TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
STATE. MVFR CIGS AND SURFACE GUSTS GREATER THAN 20KT TRAILED THE
FRONT BY 50 TO 70 MILES.
00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS LESS PERSISTENT MVFR CIG POTENTIAL FOR THE
MIDSOUTH TAF SITES FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL REMAIN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED AFTER MIDMORNING.
WE'LL LOSE SOME WIND SPEED AFTER SUNSET, BUT THE RELATIVELY WELL-
MIXED POLAR AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME GUST POTENTIAL
WELL INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH BEGINNING
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. POST-FRONTAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED 20 FT NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY DECREASED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
DYERSBURG, TN TO OXFORD, MS, WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER RISK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST CENTRAL AR, NW MS, AND FAR SW TN.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page