337
FXUS64 KMEG 172351
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
651 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED, PATCHY
FROST MAINLY NORTH OF I-40.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A
GENERAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
A BEAUTIFUL, FALL-LIKE DAY IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SPANNING THE 50S INTO THE LOW 60S.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING THROUGH THE REGION. WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH WIND SPEEDS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING WIND
SPEEDS, WE WILL SEE SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
40S ELSEWHERE. CURRENT HREF GUIDANCE HAS ABOUT A 30 TO 50% CHANCE
OF LOWS NORTH OF I-40 FALLING BELOW 37 DEGREES. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH OUR WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT, OPTED AGAINST ANY
FROST HEADLINES FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THAT COULD FALL
BELOW THIS THRESHOLD. WHILE WE WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED,
PATCHY FROST ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OR LOW-LYING
REGIONS, WIND SPEEDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO HINDER WIDESPREAD
FROST DEVELOPMENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL THAT LOW
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR ADDITIONAL CONTEXT, THIS IS AROUND THE
TIME OF YEAR THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE OUR FIRST FROST FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.
AFTER THE CHILLY START SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A WARMING
TREND. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK INTO THE 80S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S AGAIN BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR. LIGHT NE WINDS VEERING TO SE ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS, WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS
WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 30% AND 35% FOR THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL NEAR TO BELOW 30% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WORK WEEK. DESPITE WINDS
REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT, LOW 10-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS, NORTH MISSISSIPPI, AND
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. AS SUCH, DAILY RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS MAY BE WARRANTED INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK FOR AT LEAST
SOME PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...SJM
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