162
FXUS64 KMEG 180449
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1149 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED, PATCHY
FROST MAINLY NORTH OF I-40.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A
GENERAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER RESIDES THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PATTERN CHANGE SITS TO OUR EAST WITH A COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE
GULF WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST.
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WILL PROMOTE MORE SUBSIDENCE INTO SUNDAY,
LEADING TO CLEAR WEATHER AND HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THAT WILL LEAD TO THE
COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN MONTHS. HREF GUIDANCE
STILL PAINTS LARGE AREAS WHERE LOWS HAVE GREATER THAN A 50%
CHANCE OF LOWS BELOW 37 F THIS MORNING, LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED, PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
MORE OF THE SAME, IN TERMS OF THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST AT THE SAME TIME, BRINGING SOUTHERLIES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST, FORCING THE CESSATION OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BRINGING WINDS TO NEAR CALM. THEREFORE, THE
REST OF THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE MORE CALM, DRY WEATHER WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS ADVECTIVE PROCESSES REMAIN WEAK. HIGHS
WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, EVENTUALLY CREEPING FURTHER NORTH WITH EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. SO, EXPECT AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT NE WINDS VEERING TO SE ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS CALL FOR
DAILY DROPS WELL BELOW 30 PERCENT EACH DAY, WITH SOME AREAS
FALLING BENEATH 20 PERCENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH A LACK
OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH, FUELS HAVE BEGUN TO DRY OUT,
LEADING TO 10-HOUR FUELS FALLING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT.
FORTUNATELY, 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SITS OVER THE MID-SOUTH. RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
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