371
FXUS62 KMFL 141809
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
109 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AS DRY AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE PRIMARY FEATURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL BE LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS OVER
THE FL PENINSULA FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW MOVES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY, IT
WILL DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST US AND FL
PENINSULA, PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH FL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN ALREADY DRY AIRMASS (PWAT AROUND 1.25 INCHES TODAY)
WILL BECOME EVEN DRIER, WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING BELOW 1 INCH
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
EACH DAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY ALONG THE EAST COAST.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH TONIGHT'S LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOW TO
MID 80S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STARTS TO COOL THINGS
OFF.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT
AS IT ADVECTS SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE LOCAL AIR MASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY
AT THAT POINT KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SO
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY SATURDAY MORNING, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION. DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 60S AND EVEN UPPER 50S
IN SOME SPOTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THUS, DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AS WHATEVER
BECOMES OF PTC 19 (WHETHER THAT BE A DEVELOPED TC OR SIMPLY
REMNANTS) IS SWEPT EASTWARD WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
IN THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS AT LEAST
PLAUSIBLE THE MOISTURE ENVELOPE FROM PTC 19 WILL REACH THE AREA
DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, SO THIS WILL BE THE ONLY TIME-FRAME WITH
MENTIONABLE POPS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER. FURTHER DETAILS WILL
BECOME CLEARER BY THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THE AIR MASS WILL FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHTER
THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE NW ON FRIDAY AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
TODAY, BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
BRIEFLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AS WINDS LIGHTEN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
PERSISTENT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL KEEP AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, KING TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
LAKE WORTH PIER HIGH TIDE TIMES: 623 PM THU, 704 AM FRI, 713 PM
FRI, 755 AM SAT, 803 PM SAT, AND 846 AM SUN.
PORT EVERGLADES HIGH TIDE TIMES: 640 PM THU, 723 AM FRI, 730 PM
FRI, 814 AM SAT, 821 PM SAT, AND 904 AM SUN.
VIRGINIA KEY HIGH TIDE TIMES: 724 PM THU, 806 AM FRI, 814 PM FRI,
857 AM SAT, 904 PM SAT, AND 946 AM SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 87 67 81 / 0 10 10 0
WEST KENDALL 67 88 64 83 / 0 10 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 70 87 67 83 / 0 10 10 0
HOMESTEAD 70 87 67 82 / 0 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 86 69 80 / 0 10 10 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 86 68 80 / 0 10 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 70 89 67 83 / 0 10 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 70 86 67 80 / 0 10 0 0
BOCA RATON 70 87 68 81 / 0 10 0 0
NAPLES 72 83 62 83 / 0 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...CULVER
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