428
FXUS62 KMFL 150536
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1236 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AS DRY AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE PRIMARY FEATURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL BE LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS OVER
THE FL PENINSULA FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW MOVES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY, IT
WILL DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST US AND FL
PENINSULA, PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH FL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN ALREADY DRY AIRMASS (PWAT AROUND 1.25 INCHES TODAY)
WILL BECOME EVEN DRIER, WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING BELOW 1 INCH
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
EACH DAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY ALONG THE EAST COAST.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH TONIGHT'S LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOW TO
MID 80S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STARTS TO COOL THINGS
OFF.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL AS EARLY NEXT WEEK, MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NEARBY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE, A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AS HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, MID LEVEL RIDGING
STARTS TO FLATTEN AND PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DUE TO A
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN FACTORS
IN STEERING WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM SARA IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS VERY HIGH FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE
HANDLING OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO, THIS WILL HELP TO
STEER SARA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOW LONG THIS FEATURE
INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASS WILL BE A KEY COMPONENT INTO WHAT IS
LEFT OF THIS FEATURE, (IF ANYTHING), AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE VERY LEAST, THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR WITH LIGHT, VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES
AND THE WIND WILL PICK UP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A NW FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMING NE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
BRIEFLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AS WINDS LIGHTEN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
PERSISTENT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL KEEP AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, KING TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
LAKE WORTH PIER HIGH TIDE TIMES: 623 PM THU, 704 AM FRI, 713 PM
FRI, 755 AM SAT, 803 PM SAT, AND 846 AM SUN.
PORT EVERGLADES HIGH TIDE TIMES: 640 PM THU, 723 AM FRI, 730 PM
FRI, 814 AM SAT, 821 PM SAT, AND 904 AM SUN.
VIRGINIA KEY HIGH TIDE TIMES: 724 PM THU, 806 AM FRI, 814 PM FRI,
857 AM SAT, 904 PM SAT, AND 946 AM SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 87 68 80 70 / 10 10 0 10
WEST KENDALL 88 66 83 66 / 10 20 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 87 67 82 68 / 10 10 0 10
HOMESTEAD 87 68 81 69 / 10 20 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 69 79 71 / 10 10 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 86 68 80 71 / 10 10 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 88 68 83 69 / 10 10 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 85 68 80 70 / 10 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 87 68 81 70 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 84 63 83 64 / 10 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...RAG
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