468
FXUS62 KMFL 151134
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
634 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW THIS MORNING AHEAD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SOON GIVES WAY TO A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO SUPPORT STOUT CONVECTION.
KEPT SOME MENTION OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST BASED OFF THE POTENTIAL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO AROUND AND AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ALONG THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEFORE IT TURNS MORE
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC, MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL
COOL A TAD FOR SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO AROUND 70
NEAR BISCAYNE BAY. TODAY'S TEMPERATURES COULD FLIRT WITH RECORD
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT, DRY
AND QUITE PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL BE ONE OF THE
BIGGEST STEERING INFLUENCES ON WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM SARA.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SARA TO IMPACT FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOW
LONG THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASS WILL BE A KEY
COMPONENT INTO WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS FEATURE, (IF ANYTHING), AS IT
ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS IN TERMS OF
CLASSIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE, THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL AT LEAST DRAG THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SARA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NW EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME NNE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN
BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATER TODAY/TONIGHT FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
HEADING INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
PERSISTENT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, KING TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
LAKE WORTH PIER HIGH TIDE TIMES: 704 AM FRI, 713 PM FRI, 755 AM SAT,
803 PM SAT, AND 846 AM SUN.
PORT EVERGLADES HIGH TIDE TIMES: 723 AM FRI, 730 PM FRI, 814 AM SAT,
821 PM SAT, AND 904 AM SUN.
VIRGINIA KEY HIGH TIDE TIMES: 806 AM FRI, 814 PM FRI, 857 AM SAT,
904 PM SAT, AND 946 AM SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 87 68 80 70 / 10 20 10 10
WEST KENDALL 88 65 82 66 / 10 20 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 88 66 82 68 / 10 10 0 10
HOMESTEAD 86 67 81 69 / 10 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 69 79 71 / 10 10 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 86 69 80 70 / 10 10 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 88 67 82 69 / 10 10 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 85 68 80 70 / 10 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 87 68 81 70 / 10 0 0 10
NAPLES 84 63 82 65 / 10 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...CWC
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