516
FXUS62 KMFL 160541
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1241 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 724 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT PUSHING A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE ONLY AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
THOUGH REST OF THIS EVENING. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
WILL REMAIN OVER THESE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. REST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.
DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO GET DOWN INTO THE 60S OVER MOST
AREAS, EXCEPT UPPER 50S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND AROUND 70 OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO CHANGES FOR
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND AS THE CURRENT FORECAST
SHOW THIS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE FURTHER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH A DRY AIR MASS FIRMLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THEREFORE, ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOCATED WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, A
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
ON SATURDAY, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AT
THE SURFACE. WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ALONG WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THE DRY AIR MASS WILL FIRMLY REMAIN IN
PLACE AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST PWAT VALUES COULD RANGE
FROM 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION, TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PRESIDE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A RESULT, DRY AND BENIGN CONDITION
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS REGION, WITH A SECONDARY (WEAKER) LOW
SPAWNING FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SARA NEAR THE COASTAL
LA/MS/FL PANHANDLE REGION. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL CONGEAL INTO SEMI-ORGANIZED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE TAIL OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS SE CONUS BY EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW,
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD BE A PERIOD TO MONITOR FOR
IMPACTFUL WEATHER, THOUGH FOR NOW SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH GUSTY (LIKELY SUB-SEVERE) SQUALLS AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IF THE CURRENT MODEL
PROGNOSTICS ARE REALIZED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON
SATURDAY. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH BUILDING SEAS, WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE
SEAS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 7 TO 8 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM ON SATURDAY
AND MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4
FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. ADDITIONALLY, KING TIDES WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST, AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS TO THE GULF COAST
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LAKE WORTH PIER HIGH TIDE TIMES: 713 PM FRI, 755 AM SAT, 803 PM SAT,
AND 846 AM SUN.
PORT EVERGLADES HIGH TIDE TIMES: 730 PM FRI, 814 AM SAT, 821 PM SAT,
AND 904 AM SUN.
VIRGINIA KEY HIGH TIDE TIMES: 814 PM FRI, 857 AM SAT, 904 PM SAT,
AND 946 AM SUN.
NAPLES BAY HIGH TIDE TIMES...1050 PM FRI, 103 PM SAT, AND 1126 PM
SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 71 81 70 / 10 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 82 66 82 66 / 10 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 82 68 82 69 / 10 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 82 69 81 69 / 10 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 71 79 71 / 10 10 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 71 80 71 / 10 10 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 83 69 83 69 / 10 10 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 79 71 80 69 / 10 10 0 0
BOCA RATON 81 71 81 71 / 10 10 0 0
NAPLES 82 65 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...RAG
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