353
FXUS62 KMFL 161500
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTH CONTINUES
TO FUNNEL A DRY AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. THIS IS SHOWN VERY WELL
ON THE 12Z KMFL SOUNDING AS PWAT VALUES CAME IN AT 0.75 INCHES.
THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN
EASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REINFORCE THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP LAYER OF DRIER, COOLER AIR THAT WILL SIT OVER THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR THE WHOLE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO START
THE NEW WORK WEEK. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
REGION WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE REMNANTS OF TS SARA WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONGEAL INTO SEMI-ORGANIZED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE TAIL OF AN ELONGATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE CONUS BY EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AS OF NOW, WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD BE A PERIOD TO
MONITOR FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER, THOUGH FOR NOW SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH GUSTY (LIKELY SUB-SEVERE) SQUALLS
AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IF THE CURRENT
MODEL PROGNOSTICS ARE REALIZED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH A COOLDOWN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE LATER THIS MORNING AND
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINSH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN LATER THIS
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON
SATURDAY. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH BUILDING SEAS, WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE
SEAS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 7 TO 8 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM ON SATURDAY
AND MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4
FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. ADDITIONALLY, KING TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MINOR
TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS TO THE GULF COAST DURING THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LAKE WORTH PIER HIGH TIDE TIMES: 755 AM SAT, 803 PM SAT, AND 846 AM
SUN.
PORT EVERGLADES HIGH TIDE TIMES: 814 AM SAT, 821 PM SAT, AND 904 AM
SUN.
VIRGINIA KEY HIGH TIDE TIMES: 857 AM SAT, 904 PM SAT, AND 946 AM SUN.
NAPLES BAY HIGH TIDE TIMES...103 PM SAT, AND 1126 PM SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 70 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 82 66 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 82 69 82 68 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 81 70 81 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 71 80 71 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 70 80 70 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 81 70 81 69 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 79 70 79 69 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 81 70 81 70 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 83 65 83 65 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ651-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page