877
FXUS62 KMFL 161944
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH SLIDES
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO VEER AND TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EAST NORTHEASTERLY AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.
WHILE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, THEY WILL
NOT BE AS COOL AS THE WERE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND SE CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
SIMULTANEOUSLY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PRESIDE OVER SE CONUS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A
RESULT, DRY AND BENIGN CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AS
WINDS SUDDENLY VEER OUT OF THE ESE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 80S THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL SPAWN IN
THE GREAT PLAINS REGION, WITH A SECONDARY (WEAKER) LOW SPAWNING FROM
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SARA NEAR THE COASTAL LA/MS/FL
PANHANDLE REGION. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A PLUME OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL CONGEAL INTO SEMI-ORGANIZED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE TAIL OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS SE CONUS BY EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW,
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD BE A PERIOD TO MONITOR FOR
IMPACTFUL WEATHER, THOUGH FOR NOW SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH GUSTY (LIKELY SUB-SEVERE) SQUALLS AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IF THE CURRENT MODEL
PROGNOSTICS ARE REALIZED.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, LONG TERM MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
REGION AT SOME POINT ON THURSDAY (AS OF NOW). BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY ADVECTING A
(MODIFIED) CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS, DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWEST RANGES EXPERIENCED THUS FAR IN THE DRY
SEASON. AS OF NOW, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR/COASTAL REGIONS, WHILE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES REACH ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 70S, THOUGH THESE VALUES
ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE HOW SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EVOLVES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENE
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINSH AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS, COMBINED
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SEAS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
WITH A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, KING TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS TO THE GULF COAST DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LAKE WORTH PIER HIGH TIDE TIMES: 803 PM SAT, 846 AM SUN, AND 855 PM
SUN.
PORT EVERGLADES HIGH TIDE TIMES: 821 PM SAT, 904 AM SUN, AND 912 PM
SUN.
VIRGINIA KEY HIGH TIDE TIMES: 904 PM SAT, 946 AM SUN, AND 953 PM
SUN.
NAPLES BAY HIGH TIDE TIMES...145 PM SAT, 1215 AM SUN, AND 239 PM SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 82 70 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 66 82 66 82 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 70 82 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 69 81 69 81 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 80 71 81 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 80 71 81 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 70 81 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 71 79 69 81 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 71 81 71 82 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 65 83 65 83 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ651-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...CWC
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