545
FXUS62 KMFL 170556
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1256 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH SLIDES
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO VEER AND TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EAST NORTHEASTERLY AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.
WHILE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, THEY WILL
NOT BE AS COOL AS THE WERE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND SE CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
SIMULTANEOUSLY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PRESIDE OVER SE CONUS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A
RESULT, DRY AND BENIGN CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AS
WINDS SUDDENLY VEER OUT OF THE ESE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 80S THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL SPAWN IN
THE GREAT PLAINS REGION, WITH A SECONDARY (WEAKER) LOW SPAWNING FROM
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SARA NEAR THE COASTAL LA/MS/FL
PANHANDLE REGION. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A PLUME OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL CONGEAL INTO SEMI-ORGANIZED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE TAIL OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS SE CONUS BY EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW,
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD BE A PERIOD TO MONITOR FOR
IMPACTFUL WEATHER, THOUGH FOR NOW SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH GUSTY (LIKELY SUB-SEVERE) SQUALLS AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IF THE CURRENT MODEL
PROGNOSTICS ARE REALIZED.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, LONG TERM MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
REGION AT SOME POINT ON THURSDAY (AS OF NOW). BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY ADVECTING A
(MODIFIED) CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS, DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWEST RANGES EXPERIENCED THUS FAR IN THE DRY
SEASON. AS OF NOW, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR/COASTAL REGIONS, WHILE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES REACH ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 70S, THOUGH THESE VALUES
ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE HOW SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EVOLVES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
GENERALLY VFR WITH A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS, COMBINED
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SEAS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
WITH A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, KING TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS TO THE GULF COAST DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LAKE WORTH PIER HIGH TIDE TIMES: 803 PM SAT, 846 AM SUN, AND 855 PM
SUN.
PORT EVERGLADES HIGH TIDE TIMES: 821 PM SAT, 904 AM SUN, AND 912 PM
SUN.
VIRGINIA KEY HIGH TIDE TIMES: 904 PM SAT, 946 AM SUN, AND 953 PM
SUN.
NAPLES BAY HIGH TIDE TIMES...145 PM SAT, 1215 AM SUN, AND 239 PM SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 71 81 71 / 10 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 82 66 83 66 / 10 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 82 69 83 69 / 0 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 81 69 81 70 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 71 80 71 / 10 10 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 71 81 71 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 82 69 84 69 / 0 10 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 80 69 81 69 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 81 71 81 71 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 83 65 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-
172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650-
670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ651-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...RAG
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