629
FXUS62 KMFL 170724
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
224 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. A
DRIER, COOLER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION PERMITTING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH REMAINS WELL-
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S OVER MOST
AREAS. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL KEEP
THINGS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER NEAR THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE FLOW OVER
THE PENINSULA WILL HELP THE AIR WARM A DEGREE OR TWO BY THE TIME IT
REACHES SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO START
THE NEW WORK WEEK. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
REGION WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE REMNANTS OF SARA WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONGEAL INTO SEMI-ORGANIZED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE TAIL OF AN ELONGATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE CONUS BY EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AS OF NOW, WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD BE A PERIOD TO
MONITOR FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER AS THE STRONG FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION, THOUGH FOR NOW SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, WITH GUSTY (LIKELY SUB-SEVERE) SQUALLS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IF THE CURRENT MODEL PROGNOSTICS
ARE REALIZED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A COOLDOWN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
GENERALLY VFR WITH A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS, COMBINED
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SEAS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
EARLY THIS WEEK AND SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
WITH A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, KING TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS TO THE GULF COAST DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. WATER
LEVELS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS POTENTIALLY NECESSITATING A TRANSITION FROM
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
LAKE WORTH PIER HIGH TIDE TIMES: 846 AM SUN AND 855 PM SUN.
PORT EVERGLADES HIGH TIDE TIMES: 904 AM SUN AND 912 PM SUN.
VIRGINIA KEY HIGH TIDE TIMES: 946 AM SUN AND 953 PM SUN.
NAPLES BAY HIGH TIDE TIMES...1215 AM SUN AND 239 PM SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 71 81 71 / 10 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 82 66 83 67 / 10 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 82 69 83 70 / 0 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 81 69 81 70 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 71 80 72 / 10 10 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 71 81 71 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 82 69 84 70 / 0 10 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 80 69 81 70 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 81 71 81 71 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 83 65 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-
172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650-
670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ651-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...RAG
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