450
FXUS62 KMFL 180533
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ALONG WITH A SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS PWAT VALUES GENERALLY WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.9 INCHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING TO RELAX ACROSS THE REGION, WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR MOST OF THE TIME, THEY MAY START TO VEER AND BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY HEADING TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PRESIDE OVER SE CONUS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS REGION WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE REMNANTS
OF SARA WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONGEAL INTO SEMI-ORGANIZED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE TAIL OF AN ELONGATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE CONUS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD.
AS OF NOW, WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD BE A PERIOD TO
MONITOR FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER AS THE STRONG FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION, THOUGH FOR NOW SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, WITH GUSTY (LIKELY SUB-SEVERE) SQUALLS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IF THE CURRENT MODEL PROGNOSTICS
ARE REALIZED.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, LONG TERM MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT THURSDAY (AS OF NOW). BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
LIKELY ADVECTING A (MODIFIED) CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWEST RANGES EXPERIENCED THUS
FAR IN THE DRY SEASON. AS OF NOW, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR/COASTAL REGIONS,
WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REACH ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 70S, THOUGH
THESE VALUES ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE HOW
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATER ON MONDAY
AND HEADING INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINSH TONIGHT AND WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS SAME TIME
FRAME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES TONIGHT. WHILE THESE RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH
ACROSS THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK DUE TO
LINGERING EFFECTS FROM A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, THEY WILL DROP TO
MODERATE FOR THE BEACHES OF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTY. IN
ADDITION, MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK, WHILE MINOR
FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST DUE TO THE KING
TIDES.
LAKE WORTH PIER HIGH TIDE TIMES...855 PM SUN, 938 AM MON, 947 PM MON.
PORT EVERGLADES HIGH TIDE TIMES...912 PM SUN, 955 AM MON, 1004 PM
MON.
VIRGINIA KEY HIGH TIDE TIMES...953 PM SUN, 1036 AM MON, 1043 PM MON.
NAPLES BAY HIGH TIDE TIMES...239 PM SUN, 1254 AM MON, 341 PM MON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 72 82 72 / 10 10 10 0
WEST KENDALL 83 67 84 68 / 10 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 83 69 84 70 / 10 10 10 0
HOMESTEAD 82 71 83 70 / 10 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 72 81 72 / 10 10 10 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 72 82 72 / 10 10 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 83 70 84 71 / 10 10 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 80 70 82 70 / 10 10 10 0
BOCA RATON 81 71 83 71 / 10 10 10 0
NAPLES 83 66 84 71 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...RAG
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