661
FXUS62 KMFL 181101
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
601 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
THROUGH AS PWAT VALUES GENERALLY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.9
INCHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUING TO RELAX ACROSS THE REGION, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY FOR
MOST OF THE TIME, THEY MAY START TO VEER AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY HEADING TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BE NUDGED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES WILL STILL REMAIN DISMAL LEADING TO
ANOTHER DRY DAY. A PATTERN CHANGE COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSES IN ON THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
ON WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANTS OF SARA WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
NORTHERN GOM AND SWEPT EASTWARD WITH A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH GUSTY (LIKELY SUB-SEVERE)
SQUALLS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IF THE
CURRENT MODEL PROGNOSTICS ARE REALIZED.
BEHIND THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE FLOW SWINGS NORTHERLY
AND BRINGS A MUCH COOLER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWEST RANGES
WE'VE EXPERIENCED SINCE LAST WINTER. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
COULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
COULD REACH ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
VALUES ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE HOW
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
LATER HEADING INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALL ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH 7AM THIS MORNING DUE TO A LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL. THE HIGH RISK WILL REMAIN FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES
AND DROP INTO THE MODERATE RANGE FOR MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD BEYOND
7AM TODAY. RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS MODERATE FOR MIAMI DADE AND
BROWARD BEACHES TODAY. IN ADDITION, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEK, WHILE MINOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST DUE TO THE KING TIDES.
LAKE WORTH PIER HIGH TIDE TIMES...938 AM MON, 947 PM MON.
PORT EVERGLADES HIGH TIDE TIMES...955 AM MON, 1004 PM MON.
VIRGINIA KEY HIGH TIDE TIMES...1036 AM MON, 1043 PM MON.
NAPLES BAY HIGH TIDE TIMES...1254 AM MON, 341 PM MON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 72 82 72 / 10 10 10 10
WEST KENDALL 83 67 84 68 / 10 10 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 83 69 84 70 / 10 10 10 10
HOMESTEAD 82 71 83 71 / 10 10 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 72 81 72 / 10 10 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 72 82 72 / 10 10 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 83 70 84 71 / 10 10 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 80 70 82 71 / 10 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 81 71 83 71 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 83 66 84 71 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...REDMAN
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