444
FXUS62 KMFL 181739
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS PRESENT TODAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN LATE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
AND KEEP THE ABUNDANTLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. THIS MORNINGS 12Z
SOUNDING CONFIRMED THE DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS AND HIGHLIGHTS ONLY
~0.7" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT). THUS, EXPECT DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EARLY WEEK PERIOD. A PATTERN CHANGE COMES ON
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSES IN ON THE SOUTH FLORIDA
REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN SW FLORIDA GIVEN THE
EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
ON WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANTS OF SARA WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
NORTHERN GOM AND SWEPT EASTWARD WITH A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH GUSTY (LIKELY SUB-SEVERE)
SQUALLS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IF THE
CURRENT MODEL PROGNOSTICS ARE REALIZED.
BEHIND THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE FLOW SWINGS NORTHERLY
AND BRINGS A MUCH COOLER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWEST RANGES
WE'VE EXPERIENCED SINCE LAST WINTER. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
COULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
COULD REACH ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
VALUES ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE HOW
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS AGAIN TOMORROW, BUT
WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
A GENTLE TO LIGHTLY MODERATE BREEZE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EARLY WEEK PERIOD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATER HEADING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FEET TODAY AND FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS
ON TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET
DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE PALM BEACHES FOR THE
REST OF TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
BEACHES. AN ELEVATED RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. IN TERMS OF COASTAL FLOODING,
THE LAST PEAK OF THIS KING TIDE CYCLE OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND
TIDES CONTINUE TO LOWER. FUTURE HIGH TIDES THE REST OF THIS WEEK ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER, STANDING WATER FROM
PREVIOUS CYCLES MAY LINGER A WHILE LONGER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 82 72 84 / 0 0 10 50
WEST KENDALL 68 84 68 84 / 0 0 10 40
OPA-LOCKA 70 84 70 84 / 0 0 10 40
HOMESTEAD 71 83 71 84 / 0 0 10 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 81 72 83 / 10 0 10 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 82 72 83 / 10 0 10 50
PEMBROKE PINES 71 85 71 85 / 10 0 10 50
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 71 83 / 0 0 10 50
BOCA RATON 71 83 71 83 / 10 0 10 50
NAPLES 66 84 71 81 / 0 0 10 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...REDMAN
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