980
FXUS62 KMFL 190527
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1227 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 732 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL KEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS HAVE ALSO DECREASED THIS EVENING, AS THE
WINDS HAVE DECREASE SOME THIS EVENING. THEREFORE, THE ONLY CHANGE
IS TO LET THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRED FOR THE BEACHES
OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS PRESENT TODAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN LATE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
AND KEEP THE ABUNDANTLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. THIS MORNINGS 12Z
SOUNDING CONFIRMED THE DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS AND HIGHLIGHTS ONLY
~0.7" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT). THUS, EXPECT DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EARLY WEEK PERIOD. A PATTERN CHANGE COMES ON
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSES IN ON THE SOUTH FLORIDA
REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN SW FLORIDA GIVEN THE
EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGHING
PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND IT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
SARA WHICH WILL CAUSE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
REMAINING DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, THIS WILL HELP
TO LIMIT THE CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, WITH THIS LINE POSSIBLY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING, ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST AIRMASS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE LAST WINTER AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND COULD DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE LOWER TO MID
70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
GENERALLY VFR WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT THAT WILL
PICK UP ON TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
A GENTLE TO LIGHTLY MODERATE BREEZE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EARLY WEEK PERIOD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATER HEADING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FEET TODAY AND FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS
ON TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET
DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE PALM BEACHES FOR THE
REST OF TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
BEACHES. AN ELEVATED RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. IN TERMS OF COASTAL FLOODING,
THE LAST PEAK OF THIS KING TIDE CYCLE OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND
TIDES CONTINUE TO LOWER. FUTURE HIGH TIDES THE REST OF THIS WEEK ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER, STANDING WATER FROM
PREVIOUS CYCLES MAY LINGER A WHILE LONGER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 72 84 68 / 0 10 40 30
WEST KENDALL 83 68 85 66 / 10 10 40 30
OPA-LOCKA 84 71 85 67 / 0 10 40 30
HOMESTEAD 82 71 84 68 / 10 10 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 72 83 68 / 10 10 40 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 71 84 68 / 10 10 50 30
PEMBROKE PINES 84 71 86 67 / 0 10 40 30
WEST PALM BEACH 82 71 83 66 / 10 10 50 30
BOCA RATON 83 71 85 67 / 10 10 50 30
NAPLES 83 71 81 64 / 0 10 50 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...RAG
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