139
FXUS62 KMFL 191058
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
558 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RECOVERY AND AIRMASS
MODERATION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
WARM A FEW DEGREES MORE TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY,
INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND APPROACHING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AGAIN LEAD TO MORE LIMITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S IN GLADES COUNTY TO THE MID
80S OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM SARA WHICH WILL FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY REMAINING DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, WITH THIS LINE POSSIBLY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING, ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE MAIN THREATS
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST AIRMASS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SINCE LAST WINTER AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND COULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
GENERALLY VFR WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT THAT WILL
PICK UP ON TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER
MORE SSW FOR TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HIGHER WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN PALM
BEACH COUNTY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO BUILD ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 72 84 68 / 0 10 40 30
WEST KENDALL 83 68 85 66 / 10 10 40 30
OPA-LOCKA 84 71 85 67 / 0 10 40 30
HOMESTEAD 82 71 84 68 / 10 10 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 72 83 68 / 10 10 40 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 71 84 67 / 10 10 50 30
PEMBROKE PINES 84 71 86 67 / 0 10 40 30
WEST PALM BEACH 82 71 83 66 / 10 10 50 30
BOCA RATON 83 71 85 67 / 10 10 50 30
NAPLES 83 71 81 64 / 0 10 50 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...REDMAN
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