383
FXUS62 KMFL 191722
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1222 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AREAS WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY DESPITE
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AS ABUNDANTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS PRESENT
IN SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY FROM THE GULF WILL
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NW
BEHIND IT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 40-50% FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASE IN
POPS WILL OCCUR FIRST FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AND THEN WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH AND EAST WITHIN SEVERAL HOURS.
MOSTLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM SARA WHICH WILL FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY REMAINING DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, WITH THIS LINE POSSIBLY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING, ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE MAIN THREATS
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST AIRMASS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SINCE LAST WINTER AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND COULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
GENERALLY VFR WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT THAT WILL
PICK UP ON TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER
MORE SSW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS FOR TOMORROW. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY, RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HIGHER WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WAVES BUILDING LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT
RATHER BENIGN SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE PRESENT UNTIL THEN.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN PALM
BEACH COUNTY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO BUILD ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 83 68 78 / 0 40 30 0
WEST KENDALL 68 84 66 79 / 0 40 30 0
OPA-LOCKA 71 84 67 79 / 0 40 30 0
HOMESTEAD 71 83 68 79 / 0 40 30 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 83 68 77 / 0 50 30 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 83 67 78 / 0 50 30 0
PEMBROKE PINES 71 85 67 80 / 0 50 30 0
WEST PALM BEACH 71 83 66 76 / 0 50 30 0
BOCA RATON 71 84 67 78 / 0 50 30 0
NAPLES 71 81 64 73 / 10 50 20 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...REDMAN
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