548
FXUS62 KMFL 192346
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
646 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER AND BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE EROSION OF THE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES HEADING TOWARDS
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AREAS WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY DESPITE
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AS ABUNDANTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS PRESENT
IN SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY FROM THE GULF WILL
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NW
BEHIND IT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 40-50% FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASE IN
POPS WILL OCCUR FIRST FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AND THEN WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH AND EAST WITHIN SEVERAL HOURS.
MOSTLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTH FL EARLY THURSDAY ENDING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND THEN A PROLONGED DRY AND COOL STRETCH IS PROJECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COOLEST AIR SINCE
LATE FEBRUARY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AROUND THE LAKE
REGION AND INTERIOR SW FL FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY, AND 50S FOR
THE REST OF SOUTH FL. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY STRUGGLING TO REACH 70
DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE
WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY
FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COULD BRING
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS AS SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HIGHER WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WAVES BUILDING LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT
RATHER BENIGN SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE PRESENT UNTIL THEN.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN PALM
BEACH COUNTY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO BUILD ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 84 68 79 / 0 40 20 10
WEST KENDALL 68 85 65 79 / 0 40 20 0
OPA-LOCKA 70 85 67 79 / 0 40 20 10
HOMESTEAD 70 84 68 79 / 0 40 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 83 68 78 / 0 40 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 83 68 78 / 0 50 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 71 85 68 80 / 0 40 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 67 76 / 10 60 20 0
BOCA RATON 71 84 68 78 / 10 50 20 10
NAPLES 71 81 65 73 / 10 50 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC
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