361
FXUS62 KMFL 200554
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1254 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER AND BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE EROSION OF THE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES HEADING TOWARDS
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AREAS WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY DESPITE
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AS ABUNDANTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS PRESENT
IN SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY FROM THE GULF WILL
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NW
BEHIND IT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 40-50% FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASE IN
POPS WILL OCCUR FIRST FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AND THEN WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH AND EAST WITHIN SEVERAL HOURS.
MOSTLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTH FL EARLY THURSDAY ENDING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND THEN A PROLONGED DRY AND COOL STRETCH IS PROJECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COOLEST AIR SINCE
LATE FEBRUARY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AROUND THE LAKE
REGION AND INTERIOR SW FL FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY, AND 50S FOR
THE REST OF SOUTH FL. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY STRUGGLING TO REACH 70
DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW LATER THIS MORNING OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BEFORE TURNING W AND
EVENTUALLY NW IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
AHEAD OF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, MAINLY FROM THE LATE
MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR MVFR CIGS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HIGHER WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WAVES BUILDING LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT
RATHER BENIGN SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE PRESENT UNTIL THEN.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN PALM
BEACH COUNTY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO BUILD ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 68 79 55 / 40 20 10 0
WEST KENDALL 85 65 79 51 / 40 20 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 85 67 79 54 / 40 20 10 0
HOMESTEAD 84 68 79 54 / 40 20 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 68 78 55 / 40 20 10 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 83 68 78 55 / 50 20 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 85 68 80 54 / 40 20 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 83 67 76 54 / 60 20 0 0
BOCA RATON 84 68 78 54 / 50 20 10 0
NAPLES 81 65 73 55 / 50 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CULVER
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