626
FXUS62 KMFL 201423
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
923 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 903 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY. MFL AND TBW SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING CAPTURED
INCREASING PWAT VALUES, WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE CONCENTRATED IN
THE LOWEST 3 KMS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS, AMPLE DRY AIR
STILL REMAINS IN THE MIDLEVELS WHERE STRONG WINDS PREVAIL. THIS
WILL MEAN THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW ROGUE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
DUE TO LOWER CLOUD COVERAGE AS WE AWAIT THE FRONTAL APPROACH.
BEYOND CHANGING THE TEMPS FORECAST, NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGHING DROPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, KICK-STARTING A
DRASTIC CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS MOVING FORWARD. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF OUT OF THE SSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
BE BREEZY AT TIMES, BEFORE FLIPPING TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL START TO USHER IN VERY DRY AIR, AS WELL AS THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WON'T BE REFLECTIVE OF THAT AS THE REALLY COOL (COLD?) AIR WON'T
BE HERE YET, SO TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER
INTERIOR AND SW FL, WITH UPPER 60S OVER SE FL. THURSDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER
INTERIOR AND SW FL, TO THE UPPER 70S OVER SE FL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED DRY AND COOL STRETCH
AS A BODY OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. WITH THE ENTRY OF A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AIR MASS, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOUTH FLORIDA THE COOLEST
OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE LATE FEBRUARY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE 40S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN
FL, WITH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FL IN THE 50S, EARLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TREND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION, WITH SOME LOCATIONS NORTH
OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING
FOR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER EASTERLY BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MASS, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BENIGN AND RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW LATER THIS MORNING OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BEFORE TURNING W AND
EVENTUALLY NW IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF AND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT, MAINLY FROM THE LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST-NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS AFTER IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH BUILDING SEAS. OVER THE OUTER GULF WATERS, SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT, WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY
THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS LIGHTEN.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF BEACHES LATER
ON TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGS
ONSHORE FLOW. AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
PARTICULARLY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 69 78 54 / 30 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 84 66 78 51 / 30 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 84 68 78 53 / 30 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 84 68 78 53 / 30 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 68 76 55 / 40 10 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 83 68 77 54 / 40 10 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 85 68 78 53 / 40 10 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 83 67 76 53 / 50 10 0 0
BOCA RATON 84 68 77 53 / 50 10 0 0
NAPLES 81 64 73 55 / 40 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ069.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ676.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....JS
UPDATE/AVIATION...ATV
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