139
FXUS62 KMFL 210647
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER CENTRAL FL AT THIS HOUR WHILE THE
MAIN COLD FRONT IS UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE INITIAL FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR SOUTH FL BY AROUND 06Z WITH THE MAIN FRONT CROSSING
THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAS BEEN PATCHY THIS
EVENING AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES AND BRINGS IN MUCH DRIER AIR. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER AS THAT THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. IT'LL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EVENTUALLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND SW FL, WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
USHERING IN THE FIRST "COOL" WEATHER SNAP OF THE SEASON. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CURRENTLY POSITIONS THE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE,
WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL FL. AS THE FRONT DROPS
THROUGH, SO WILL THE RAIN; MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL HAVE A 40-60%
OF SCATTERED, MODERATE RAIN THAT COULD LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR AREA, A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL START TO USHER IN VERY DRY AIR, AS WELL AS THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WON'T
BE REFLECTIVE OF THAT AS THE REALLY COOL (COLD?) AIR WON'T BE HERE
UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK, SO TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S OVER INTERIOR AND SW FL, WITH UPPER 60S OVER SE FL. THURSDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
70S OVER INTERIOR AND SW FL, TO THE UPPER 70S OVER SE FL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD, AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN A (MODIFIED)
CONTINENTIAL POLAR AIRMASS, LEADING TO THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN QUITE SOME TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
INTERIOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WITH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN
THE 50S FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TREND
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RANGE, WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EASTWARD, ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS TO VEER OUT OF OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST BEGINNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A WARMING TREND IN TERMS OF OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES, WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND A DRIER AIRMASS, CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BENIGN AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING AS A
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FL AFTER 14Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING, REMAINING NORTHERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTER GULF
WATERS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
COULD ALSO DETERIORATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 15-20 KTS, GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 6-7 FEET LATER THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS LIGHTEN.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST BEACHES AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AN ELEVATED RIP
CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 55 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 80 51 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 80 54 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 80 53 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 55 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 55 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 81 54 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 77 53 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 79 53 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 74 55 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...CULVER
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