736
FXUS62 KMFL 151203
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
703 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
FURTHER NORTHWARD HEADING INTO MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG
AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF OF
THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY INTO MONDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN
TIGHT THROUGHOUT TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY STARTING TO RELAX HEADING
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A BREEZY EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
IN PLACE TODAY AS WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST AREAS, AND GUSTS UP TO 25 WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO MONDAY AS WELL. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
PUSHING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND MONDAY. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRENGTHENING AND PROVIDING PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT, THESE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN LOW TOPPED AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY
LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE WEATHER PATTERN DOESNT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS FIRM OVER THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, HOWEVER, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL STILL RESIDE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT HIGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC, AND THE EASTERLY WINDS ON
TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY START TO VEER AND BECOME A LITTLE BIT MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.8 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN PUSH INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE, SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
LOW TOPPED KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTREMELY LOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE EAST COAST TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
HEADING TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THE WEATHER PATTERN
MAY START TO SHOW SIGNS OF CHANGE AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
AND A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE THE EXACT DETAILS
STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN HAVING A
COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
STILL REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW STRONG THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY BE AS IT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. IN ANY EVENT,
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER AND COOLER AIR COULD PUSH INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES FOR THE ATLANTIC
TERMINALS UNDER PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NE AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AT APF, BUT
STILL GUSTY THROUGH AROUND 02-03Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A FRESH TO STRONG EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE. A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC WILL ALSO BRING SEAS
OF 7 TO 11 FEET THROUGH TODAY. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE HEADING INTO MONDAY. ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, A MODERATE TO
FRESH EAST NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THOUGH TODAY WITH
SEAS GENERALLY REMAINING AT 2 FEET OR LESS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 204 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH A POTENT
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. IN ADDITION, THIS NORTHEASTERLY SWELL COULD
BRING LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE TO THE
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTY BEACHES TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 71 80 71 / 20 30 40 40
WEST KENDALL 81 69 81 69 / 20 20 30 30
OPA-LOCKA 81 70 81 70 / 20 30 40 40
HOMESTEAD 80 71 81 71 / 20 20 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 71 79 71 / 30 30 40 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 72 80 71 / 30 30 40 40
PEMBROKE PINES 81 70 82 71 / 20 30 40 40
WEST PALM BEACH 78 70 80 71 / 30 30 40 40
BOCA RATON 80 71 81 71 / 30 30 40 40
NAPLES 81 65 82 67 / 0 0 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR FLZ168.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...17
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