148
FXUS62 KMFL 151923
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
223 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
MODELS AND SFC ANALYSES DEPICT SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WHILE A DECAYING STATIONARY FRONT
SLOWLY DEGRADES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A RELATIVELY WARMER AND CLOUDY PATTERN CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY OVER SOFLO WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN
THE PREVAILING NE FLOW. PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP BREEZY AND GUSTY PERIODS IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LATEST NBM-OCEANIC 10 PERCENTILE 6HR MEAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES DEPICT
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IN THE TRACE TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
MOST OF THE SOFLO'S EAST COAST METRO AREAS EACH DAY. A ROBUST
CLOUD FIELD CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE NE, AND CARRYING ENOUGH MARINE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
THE PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS SOFLO. NOT A LOT OF ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT
FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION, WHICH REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP ITS
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM.
THE DESCRIBED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE GULF
COAST. THE PERSISTENT ROBUST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO HELP IN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND, AND IN THE LOW
70S NEAR THE COASTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOW 80S, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOFLO.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
(MONDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY) MAIN CONCERN: INCREASING RAINFALL
CHANCES
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS PERIOD, AS BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS ALONG ITS PERIPHERY CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM, MOIST
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS, CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. GEPS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW REMARKABLE AGREEMENT
REGARDING ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, RANGING FROM
1.4-1.6 INCHES (75-90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
FURTHERMORE, THE GEPS IS ALSO SIGNALING ABOVE AVERAGE QPF VALUES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH 70-80% OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL,
ALL DEPENDENT ON HOW THE BROADER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES
THIS WEEK. MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION MID WEEK, WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE CONTINENTAL US. A MORE PROGRESSIVE
MID- LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL US (A SOLUTION SUPPORTED
BY THE GEPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY, WHILE A SLOWER TROUGH (AS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS/CMCE
MEMBERS) WOULD SEE THE HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR THIS FORECAST, WENT WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH AND KEPT SCATTERED CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
(THURSDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY) MAIN CONCERN: COOLING TEMPERATURES
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID- LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT
INTO THE ATLANTIC SOMETIME THURSDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SE CONUS TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
AT THIS TIME, WITH THE GEPS MEMBERS DEPICTING A POTENTIALLY DEEPER
TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS AND A FRONT THAT CLEARS OUR AREA NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD AND A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS MAKING IT SOUTH
ALONG THE PENINSULA. OTHER ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT
REGARDING ANY SOLUTION. THUS, FOR THIS FORECAST WE'RE TRENDING
MORE CLOSELY TOWARDS THE GEPS SOLUTION. WITH THE DRIER AIR, RAIN
CHANCES BECOME NEGLIGIBLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, FAVORING PBI AND FXE WHERE THE BULK OF THE PASSING SHOWERS
IS HAPPENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC TERMINALS AT TIMES, BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL IN GENERAL.
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT MONDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS, AND SEAS OF 7-
10 FEET. OVER THE GULF WATERS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CAUTIONARY AT
TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD BEGIN GRADUALLY IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
UNTIL MONDAY, BUT COULD LAST INTO TUESDAY, FUELED BY THE ONSHORE
FLOW AND NORTHEAST SWELL. LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL BE IN THE SURF
ZONE ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AND BROWARD COUNTY BEACHES DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 80 71 80 / 20 40 40 50
WEST KENDALL 69 82 69 81 / 10 40 30 50
OPA-LOCKA 70 82 70 82 / 20 40 40 50
HOMESTEAD 71 81 71 80 / 10 30 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 79 71 79 / 30 50 40 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 79 71 80 / 30 50 40 60
PEMBROKE PINES 71 82 71 83 / 30 50 40 50
WEST PALM BEACH 71 80 71 80 / 30 50 40 50
BOCA RATON 71 81 71 81 / 30 50 40 60
NAPLES 66 82 67 82 / 0 10 10 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR FLZ168.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...17
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