071
FXUS62 KMFL 161138
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
638 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A
MILD AND CLOUDY PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK. MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORCE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY WINDS AND
PASSING SHOWERS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY. LATEST NBM OCEANIC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS MAY OBSERVE RAINFALL
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 0.10 INCHES. THE GREATEST RAINFALL COVERAGE
CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST COAST, PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE DISPARITY IN WIND REDUCTION FACTORS BETWEEN LAND AND SEA.
ASIDE FROM RAINFALL, LOCALLY ELEVATED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35
MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT A VERY CONSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH
TUESDAY, THOUGH PERHAPS WITH AN UPTICK IN OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE
(PER HREF ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS). PERSISTENT AND NARROW LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY NARROWLY FOCUSED ALONG A
TRAIL OF LOCATIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
BE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
ADDITIONALLY, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH
BRIEF IN TERMS OF DURATION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL FACILITATE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS, ADVECTING WARM,
MOISTURE-LADEN AIR OVER THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, PARTICULARLY FOCUSED
ALONG SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. BOTH THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM (GEPS) AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS) ENSEMBLES REVEAL A STRONG CONSENSUS ON
ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT, WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
REACH BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES, WHICH FALLS WITHIN THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GEPS ALSO INDICATES ABOVE-AVERAGE
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF) VALUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH 70-80% OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONCURRING. GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECTED RAIN COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
CONTINGENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONTINENTAL
UNITED STATES (SE CONUS) TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS
NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH GEPS MEMBERS
SUGGESTING A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS, POTENTIALLY USHERING
IN A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHER
MODELS SHOW LESS CONSISTENCY, LEADING THIS FORECAST TO LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE GEPS SCENARIO. NEVERTHELESS, RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, OWING TO WARM ADVECTION AND A
PERIOD OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FOR NOW, WHICH WILL BE GREATLY CONTINGENT ON
INSTABILITY OF THE TROPICAL MARITIME AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY. WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THIS DRIER AIR TOWARDS THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD, PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL DIMINISH TO
NEGLIGIBLE LEVELS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY SPAN
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT MILD LOWS IN THE 50S TO 60S INLAND AND IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COASTS BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LOW/MID 50S FOR THE METROPOLITAN REGIONS, THOUGH IT
WILL DEPEND ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
A GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME FRAME,
HOWEVER, COVERAGE MAY INCREASE LATER TODAY AND MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME PREVALENT TOWARDS THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND BECOMING CAUTIONARY BY THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. PERSISTENT AND BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH
SEAS RANGING FROM 6 TO 9 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KT POSSIBLE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES, OWING TO PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A LINGERING
SWELL EVENT. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 72 80 71 / 40 50 60 60
WEST KENDALL 82 69 81 69 / 40 40 60 50
OPA-LOCKA 81 70 81 70 / 40 50 60 60
HOMESTEAD 81 72 81 70 / 40 50 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 71 79 70 / 40 60 70 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 72 79 70 / 40 60 70 60
PEMBROKE PINES 83 71 82 70 / 40 50 70 60
WEST PALM BEACH 80 72 80 70 / 40 50 70 60
BOCA RATON 81 71 81 70 / 40 60 70 60
NAPLES 83 67 82 67 / 10 10 40 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...RAG
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