959
FXUS62 KMFL 161739
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SOUTH FLORIDA SITS BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ENABLE A PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. A DISTURBANCE
IN BAHAMAS WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN. ATLANTIC
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
AND THE FOCUS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA.
A SIGNAL DOES PERSIST IN THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE THAT REPEATED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSED ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREA
COULD PROVIDE A 1-IN-10 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME URBANIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS THAT NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS OR WHERE
BOUNDARIES COULD LINGER PROVIDING A LOCALLY ENHANCED ENVIRONMENT
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL FACILITATE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS, ADVECTING WARM,
MOISTURE-LADEN AIR OVER THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, PARTICULARLY FOCUSED
ALONG SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. BOTH THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM (GEPS) AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS) ENSEMBLES REVEAL A STRONG CONSENSUS ON
ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT, WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
REACH BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES, WHICH FALLS WITHIN THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GEPS ALSO INDICATES ABOVE-AVERAGE
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF) VALUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH 70-80% OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONCURRING. GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECTED RAIN COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
CONTINGENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONTINENTAL
UNITED STATES (SE CONUS) TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS
NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH GEPS MEMBERS
SUGGESTING A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS, POTENTIALLY USHERING
IN A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHER
MODELS SHOW LESS CONSISTENCY, LEADING THIS FORECAST TO LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE GEPS SCENARIO. NEVERTHELESS, RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, OWING TO WARM ADVECTION AND A
PERIOD OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FOR NOW, WHICH WILL BE GREATLY CONTINGENT ON
INSTABILITY OF THE TROPICAL MARITIME AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY. WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THIS DRIER AIR TOWARDS THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD, PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL DIMINISH TO
NEGLIGIBLE LEVELS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY SPAN
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT MILD LOWS IN THE 50S TO 60S INLAND AND IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COASTS BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LOW/MID 50S FOR THE METROPOLITAN REGIONS, THOUGH IT
WILL DEPEND ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
A GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME FRAME,
HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
PREVALENT TOWARDS THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BECOMING
CAUTIONARY BY THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A PERSISTENT AND BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 6 TO 9 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KT POSSIBLE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES,
OWING TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND AND A
LINGERING SWELL EVENT. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD AS AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW REMAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 80 71 79 / 60 60 60 60
WEST KENDALL 69 81 69 81 / 50 60 50 50
OPA-LOCKA 70 81 70 81 / 50 60 60 60
HOMESTEAD 71 80 70 81 / 50 60 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 79 70 78 / 60 60 60 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 80 70 79 / 60 60 60 60
PEMBROKE PINES 71 82 70 82 / 60 60 60 60
WEST PALM BEACH 72 80 70 78 / 50 70 60 60
BOCA RATON 71 81 70 80 / 60 60 60 60
NAPLES 68 82 67 80 / 10 50 30 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...RAG
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