507
FXUS62 KMFL 162338
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
638 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SOUTH FLORIDA SITS BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ENABLE A PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. A DISTURBANCE
IN BAHAMAS WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN. ATLANTIC
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
AND THE FOCUS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA.
A SIGNAL DOES PERSIST IN THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE THAT REPEATED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSED ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREA
COULD PROVIDE A 1-IN-10 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME URBANIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS THAT NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS OR WHERE
BOUNDARIES COULD LINGER PROVIDING A LOCALLY ENHANCED ENVIRONMENT
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW BROAD AND ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND KEEPING SOFLO UNDER A GENERALLY EASTERLY
WIND REGIME TO START THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER SOFLO BY MID WEEK. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SE FLORIDA. LATEST ENSEMBLES
AND NBM-OCEANIC PRECIP ESTIMATES SHOW GENERALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
BY THURSDAY, ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DEPICT A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
CORRESPONDING LOW QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND HEADING
TOWARDS THE WEST ATLANTIC WATERS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. INTER/INTRA MODEL DISCREPANCIES
CONTINUE REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
INCLUDING HOW DRY/COLD COULD CONDITIONS GET IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FOR THE WED/EARLY THU TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS WILL
FINALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD DESCEND UPON THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY,
AND POPS DROPPING TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SOFLO. THIS DRIER AIRMASS
WILL ALSO BRING A COOLING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MID-UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY, AND IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
BE FELT EVEN MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S INLAND, AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR EAST COAST
TERMINALS TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHRA PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MORE
SCATTERED-TYPE SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO)
COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH TEMPOS FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REGARDING
LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS REMAINS LOW, AND SO FOR NOW ONLY INCLUDED A
MENTION OF VCSH AND SHRA ON THE FORECAST. EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BECOMING
CAUTIONARY BY THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A PERSISTENT AND BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 6 TO 9 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KT POSSIBLE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES,
OWING TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND AND A
LINGERING SWELL EVENT. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD AS AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW REMAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 80 71 79 / 50 60 60 60
WEST KENDALL 69 81 69 80 / 50 60 50 50
OPA-LOCKA 71 81 70 80 / 50 60 60 60
HOMESTEAD 72 80 71 80 / 50 50 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 79 71 78 / 50 70 60 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 79 71 79 / 60 70 60 70
PEMBROKE PINES 72 82 71 81 / 50 60 60 60
WEST PALM BEACH 71 80 70 78 / 60 60 60 70
BOCA RATON 70 80 70 80 / 60 60 60 70
NAPLES 68 81 67 79 / 10 40 30 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATV
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