721
FXUS62 KMFL 171141 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
641 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SOUTH FLORIDA IS SITUATED BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL SUSTAIN
A PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AT APPROXIMATELY 250 HPA IS
EVIDENT IN THE LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS, WHICH IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE
SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, PARTICULARLY AS THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE HOVERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. CONCURRENTLY,
A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE-LADEN AIR FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WILL ADVECT ONSHORE, ENHANCED BY INCREASED LOW- LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, LEADING TO SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TODAY.COVERAGE OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS WILL EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN
METRO AREA, FEATURING SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, THE PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL TRANSITION FROM BEING
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 1 INCH, ALTHOUGH THE HREF
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, WITH
NO MORE THAN A 1 IN 10 CHANCE, COULD SEE 24-HOUR TOTALS OF 3-5
INCHES IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
WHERE BOTH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ARE MAXIMIZED
OVER EXTENDED PERIODS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT INTENSIFY,
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. URBAN
FLOODING COULD BECOME A CONCERN IN AREAS WITH HIGH CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL RATES AND POOR DRAINAGE.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST, INCREASING THETA-E VALUES. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) INDICES AVERAGING 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES
THROUGH MID-WEEK. WEDNESDAYS RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY, THOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AT SOME POINT
LATER IN THE DAY. NONETHELESS, URBAN FLOODING AND HIGHER WIND
GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ON THE WARMER SIDE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S,
THOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM RAINFALL AND BACKGROUND WINDS WILL
MODERATE THIS WARMTH SOMEWHAT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
BY THURSDAY, ENSEMBLE FORECASTS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ITS CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWIFTLY MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES (SE CONUS) AND PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT INTER- AND INTRA-MODEL VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, PARTICULARLY
REGARDING HOW DRY OR COLD CONDITIONS MIGHT BECOME POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE (FROPA). REGARDLESS OF THE PREVAILING MODEL SOLUTION,
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO EARLY
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. NOTE THAT THE WINDOW FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED, AND THE GREATEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ENVELOP THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY, SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHING RAIN
CHANCES WITH PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) DROPPING TO
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA (SOFLO). THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL
USHER IN A COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY,
DROPPING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE PARTICULARLY NOTICEABLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S INLAND, AND FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE
COASTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
BREEZY TO GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES
TODAY. CEILING AND VIS CONDITIONS WILL FLUCATED BETWEEN VFR AND
IVFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
PERSISTENT AND BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, ALBEIT LOWER
IN MAGNITUDE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY SUBSIDED, ALTHOUGH CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS
AND CHOPPY SEAS MAY LINGER, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 FEET.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KT POSSIBLE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. THIS HIGH RISK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE, DRIVEN BY EASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 71 79 70 / 70 60 60 50
WEST KENDALL 82 69 82 67 / 60 50 60 40
OPA-LOCKA 81 70 81 68 / 70 60 70 50
HOMESTEAD 80 71 81 69 / 60 50 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 70 79 69 / 60 70 70 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 70 79 69 / 70 70 70 60
PEMBROKE PINES 82 71 82 69 / 60 60 70 50
WEST PALM BEACH 80 70 80 67 / 60 70 70 60
BOCA RATON 81 70 80 68 / 60 70 70 60
NAPLES 82 67 80 66 / 50 30 30 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...BNB
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