310
FXUS62 KMFL 171830
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
..HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE EAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT
..A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS THROUGH EVENING
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE GOING A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON
WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THESE TWO TROUGHS WHILE THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE TWO TROUGHS
WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE CONVERGENCE SETS UP.
THEREFORE, POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TAPPING DOWN TO ISOLATED TO LOW
END CHANCE OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME STRONG ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
500 MB TEMPS BEING IN THE -10 TO -12C AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE LIGHTING
STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL.
PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE PWAT VALUES ARE
NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND WITH THE
STEERING FLOW BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE SLOW MOVING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS. AT
THIS TIME, THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A 50% CHANCE OF SEEING
RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES AND A 10% CHANCE OF SEEING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GROUNDS ARE RELATIVELY DRY AT THIS TIME WHERE THE
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. HOWEVER,
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN STILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING OVER THE
REGION. THEREFORE, WPC HAS PUT A MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
BY THURSDAY, ENSEMBLE FORECASTS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ITS CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWIFTLY MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES (SE CONUS) AND PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT INTER- AND INTRA-MODEL VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, PARTICULARLY
REGARDING HOW DRY OR COLD CONDITIONS MIGHT BECOME POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE (FROPA). REGARDLESS OF THE PREVAILING MODEL SOLUTION,
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO EARLY
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. NOTE THAT THE WINDOW FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED, AND THE GREATEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ENVELOP THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY, SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHING RAIN
CHANCES WITH PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) DROPPING TO
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA (SOFLO). THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL
USHER IN A COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY,
DROPPING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE PARTICULARLY NOTICEABLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S INLAND, AND FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE
COASTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS. CEILING AND VIS CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THEY COULD EVEN FALL INTO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE WINDS WILL BE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH REST OF THIS WEEK OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS, AS THE WINDS DECREASE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON TO MORE OF A LIGHT TO MODERATE CONDITIONS BY END OF
THE WEEK. THE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE FROM 4 TO 6 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 2 FEET BY END OF THE WEEK. THE GULF
SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH REST OF THIS WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS
DECREASE IN SPEEDS. HOWEVER, THE THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE WEST COAST BEACHES SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH REST OF
THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 81 70 81 / 50 60 50 40
WEST KENDALL 71 81 67 82 / 40 50 40 30
OPA-LOCKA 72 81 68 81 / 50 60 50 40
HOMESTEAD 72 80 69 81 / 50 50 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 79 69 79 / 60 60 60 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 80 69 80 / 60 60 60 40
PEMBROKE PINES 72 80 69 83 / 50 60 50 40
WEST PALM BEACH 70 80 67 79 / 60 70 60 50
BOCA RATON 71 79 68 81 / 60 70 60 40
NAPLES 68 80 66 78 / 20 30 40 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...BNB
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