834
FXUS62 KMFL 180508
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1208 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE GOING A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON
WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THESE TWO TROUGHS WHILE THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE TWO TROUGHS
WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE CONVERGENCE SETS UP.
THEREFORE, POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TAPPING DOWN TO ISOLATED TO LOW
END CHANCE OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME STRONG ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
500 MB TEMPS BEING IN THE -10 TO -12C AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE LIGHTING
STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL.
PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE PWAT VALUES ARE
NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND WITH THE
STEERING FLOW BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE SLOW MOVING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS. AT
THIS TIME, THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A 50% CHANCE OF SEEING
RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES AND A 10% CHANCE OF SEEING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GROUNDS ARE RELATIVELY DRY AT THIS TIME WHERE THE
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. HOWEVER,
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN STILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING OVER THE
REGION. THEREFORE, WPC HAS PUT A MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALOFT, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWIFTLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES (SE CONUS), PROGRESSING OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING OVER
THE REGION (PWATS IN THE 1.4-1.8") AND PREVAILING S/SW FLOW,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEEPER CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL APPROACH, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. NOTE THAT THE WINDOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED AS THE GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ENVELOP
THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY, SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES
WITH PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) DROPPING TO SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA (SOFLO). THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL USHER IN A
COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY, DROPPING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BE PARTICULARLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S INLAND, AND
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH AROUND
12Z, THEN STAYING AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VCSH/VCTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE TO 15-20 KTS WITH CONVECTION.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT FORM
DIRECTLY OVER TERMINALS. KPBI HAS HIGHEST CHANCES. AT KAPF, WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE WINDS WILL BE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH REST OF THIS WEEK OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS, AS THE WINDS DECREASE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON TO MORE OF A LIGHT TO MODERATE CONDITIONS BY END OF
THE WEEK. THE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE FROM 4 TO 6 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 2 FEET BY END OF THE WEEK. THE GULF
SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH REST OF THIS WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS
DECREASE IN SPEEDS. HOWEVER, THE THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE WEST COAST BEACHES SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH REST OF
THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 70 81 67 / 70 40 30 20
WEST KENDALL 82 67 83 64 / 60 30 30 10
OPA-LOCKA 81 68 82 65 / 70 40 30 20
HOMESTEAD 81 69 82 65 / 60 30 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 69 80 66 / 60 50 40 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 69 81 66 / 70 50 40 20
PEMBROKE PINES 83 69 84 66 / 60 50 40 20
WEST PALM BEACH 80 67 80 65 / 70 60 30 20
BOCA RATON 80 68 81 65 / 70 50 40 20
NAPLES 81 66 79 62 / 20 30 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....SB
AVIATION...REDMAN
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