251
FXUS62 KMFL 181834
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
134 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH EVENING
..DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
..DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE, POPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT ISOLATED OVER THE WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL ALSO BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY. THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. THEREFORE,
MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EXCEPT
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
FOG SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, AS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF THE FOG WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS WHERE IT COULD BE DENSE. THEREFORE, THE FOG WORDING
HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE PUT DENSE FOG WORDING INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT AROUND 70
OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOWER 80S SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
WINDS SHIFT AND BECOME NORTH NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR DRY AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA, AND INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
PUSH OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES THIS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY START TO VEER
FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY TO MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MODERATING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO RETURN TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST
COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS AT KAPF WHERE IT WILL BE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. VIS
AND CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS, BUT SHOULD FALL DOWN INTO
MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT KAPF WHERE VIS AND CEILING SHOULD FALL DOWN
INTO IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z DUE TO FOG. VCTS FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TODAY AND VCSH FOR KAPF TAF SITE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH END OF THIS WEEK BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS WEEKEND. ATLANTIC SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
END OF THIS WEEK BEFORE INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS WEEKEND.
THE GULF SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH END OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING SOME THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 81 66 80 / 40 30 10 0
WEST KENDALL 67 83 63 81 / 30 30 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 68 82 64 81 / 40 30 20 0
HOMESTEAD 69 82 65 81 / 30 30 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 80 65 79 / 50 40 20 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 69 81 65 79 / 50 40 20 0
PEMBROKE PINES 69 82 65 82 / 50 30 20 0
WEST PALM BEACH 67 80 64 78 / 60 30 10 0
BOCA RATON 68 81 64 80 / 50 40 20 0
NAPLES 66 79 62 74 / 30 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM/MARINE/BEACHES/AVIATION...BNB
LONG TERM....CWC
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