379
FXUS62 KMFL 182308
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
608 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE, POPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT ISOLATED OVER THE WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL ALSO BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY. THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. THEREFORE,
MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EXCEPT
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
FOG SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, AS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF THE FOG WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS WHERE IT COULD BE DENSE. THEREFORE, THE FOG WORDING
HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE PUT DENSE FOG WORDING INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT AROUND 70
OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOWER 80S SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING TO A COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS ADVECTING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE
WORKING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHICH
WILL LEAD TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S
WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, AND INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE STRONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VEERING SURFACE FLOW TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST BY MID-WEEK WHICH WILL
ACT TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. WITH EASTERLY FLOW
RETURNING BY TUESDAY, WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE EASTERN METRO AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NIGHTLY LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
WINDS TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN GENERAL, BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z DUE TO FOG. KAPF CIGS COULD BRIEFLY FALL DOWN INTO
IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY IN THE 8-10KT RANGE
AFTER 15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH END OF THIS WEEK BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS WEEKEND. ATLANTIC SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
END OF THIS WEEK BEFORE INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS WEEKEND.
THE GULF SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH END OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING SOME THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 82 66 80 / 40 20 10 0
WEST KENDALL 69 82 63 82 / 40 20 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 69 82 65 81 / 40 20 10 0
HOMESTEAD 69 82 66 81 / 30 20 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 80 66 79 / 40 20 10 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 68 80 66 80 / 40 20 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 69 82 66 83 / 40 20 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 68 79 65 79 / 50 20 10 0
BOCA RATON 68 79 65 80 / 40 20 10 0
NAPLES 65 78 63 75 / 20 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...17
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