197
FXUS62 KMFL 191151
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
651 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS TODAY PROGRESSES. AT THE SURFACE,
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AFTER THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
AND BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE THIS PREFRONTAL
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH, PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG OCCURRING
OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING, ANY DENSE FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS WILL BE
LOCALIZED AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS AS WELL
AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY. WHILE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN, THERE WILL REMAIN JUST
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO OVER THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, HOWEVER, ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND
SHORT LIVED. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RISE
INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
MOVING INTO FRIDAY, A DEEPER, SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO USHER IN AN EVEN DRIER AIR
MASS FROM THE NORTH AS PWAT VALUES WILL PLUMMET AS FRIDAY
PROGRESSES. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REALLY START TO TAKE PLACE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 40S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR AS
WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MOVING INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A ZONAL FLOW TO SET UP
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE, A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING
AND BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES. WITH COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
ONLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FEATURE CHILLY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN AS LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS WHILE UPPER 50S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
MOVING INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WHILE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO START TAKING
PLACE DUE TO VEERING WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE RETURN OF FAST MOVING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WITH THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG
OR LOW CEILINGS, PRIMARILY AT KAPF, KTMB, AND KPBI, BUT ALL
TERMINALS COULD SEE VERY BRIEF IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT THEN
BECOMING NORTHERLY IN THE 6-10KT RANGE AFTER 15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
GULF WATERS AS A GENTLE AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, A MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
HOWEVER, THEY MAY START TO SLOWLY INCREASE HEADING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 3
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS FROM A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 83 66 80 54 / 20 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 84 63 82 51 / 20 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 83 65 82 53 / 20 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 83 66 82 54 / 20 20 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 66 79 54 / 20 10 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 66 79 54 / 20 10 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 84 66 83 54 / 20 10 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 81 64 78 52 / 10 10 0 0
BOCA RATON 82 64 80 52 / 20 10 0 0
NAPLES 79 63 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066-
067-069>071-073-075.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CULVER
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