261
FXUS62 KMFL 191807
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
107 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS TODAY PROGRESSES, SENDING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT THERE BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERALLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 60S.
ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN US FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT, AND USHER IN AN EVEN DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MASS, WITH PWAT VALUES PLUMMETING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
LEADING TO NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES. WHILE HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REALLY
START TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 40S
WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID
50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MOVING INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A ZONAL FLOW TO SET UP
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE, A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING
AND BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES. WITH COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
ONLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FEATURE CHILLY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN AS LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS WHILE UPPER 50S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
MOVING INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WHILE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO START TAKING
PLACE DUE TO VEERING WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE RETURN OF FAST MOVING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WITH THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS, WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AT KAPF. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND PICK UP
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, A MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2-3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BEFORE INCREASING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS FROM A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 67 81 54 71 / 10 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 64 82 51 71 / 10 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 65 82 53 71 / 10 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 66 82 53 72 / 20 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 66 79 54 70 / 10 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 66 79 54 70 / 10 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 66 83 54 73 / 10 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 64 79 51 69 / 10 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 65 81 52 71 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 63 74 51 66 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CULVER
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