650
FXUS62 KMFL 191949
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
249 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS TODAY PROGRESSES, SENDING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT THERE BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERALLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 60S.
ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN US FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT, AND USHER IN AN EVEN DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MASS, WITH PWAT VALUES PLUMMETING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
LEADING TO NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES. WHILE HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REALLY
START TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 40S
WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID
50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
TO START THE WEEKEND, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW TO PERSIST ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW TO REMAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE CHILLY CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHILE UPPER 50S
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE RETURN OF FAST MOVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE RETURNING,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS WELL AND RETURN CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS, WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AT KAPF. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND PICK UP
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, A MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2-3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BEFORE INCREASING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS FROM A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 67 81 54 71 / 10 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 64 82 51 71 / 10 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 65 82 53 71 / 10 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 66 82 53 72 / 20 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 66 79 54 70 / 10 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 66 79 54 70 / 10 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 66 83 54 73 / 10 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 64 79 51 69 / 10 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 65 81 52 71 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 63 74 51 66 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...CULVER
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