226
FXUS62 KMFL 201211
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
711 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO END THE WEEK AND BEGIN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP AND LEAD TO
A HIGHLY CALM WEATHER PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT OFFSHORE, ALTHOUGH IT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE DUE TO A JET STREAK UPSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH THAT IS CONNECTED TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
CONUS. OVERALL, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT EXTEND PAST THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND THUS THE ONLY EFFECT FROM IT WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT OF THE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS, COLDER AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE
PLACE WITH PWATS PLUMMETING TO UNDER 0.5" OR LESS. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS WILL BE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS.
BEFORE THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR ARRIVES LATER TODAY, THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR PATCHY TO DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE LAKE TO THE LOW 80S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. AFTER TODAY, THE CONTINUOUS DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO AN EAST/EAST-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION IN SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KICK START A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND AS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING DAILY HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80 ACROSS
MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, DURING THIS
SAME TIME FRAME EARLY NEXT WEEK, LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL RE-
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND CAUSE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO
START SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT SOME
LEVEL OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION. PWATS WILL
BE ON THE RISE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY BACK TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. WITH THE ELONGATED TROUGHING PROVIDING SOME FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND A MORE MOIST AIR MASS RETURNING, LOW CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN MOST DAYS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THESE SHOWERS WOULD BE SHALLOWER AND OF THE QUICK-HITTER
VARIETY WITH NO REAL THREAT FOR THUNDER. CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY EACH DAY EVEN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED
VIS/CIG TO SOME TERMINALS THROUGH 13-14Z, PRIMARILY AT KAPF AND
KPBI. SOME SHORT FUSED AMDS MAY BE NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS AND CLEARS. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW LATER ON THIS MORNING
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
A MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL SET UP FOR TODAY AND
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STARTING TO VEER
EASTERLY TO END THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
RISE TO 3-5 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND SOME SPOTS IN THE ATLANTIC COULD
BRIEFLY REACH 5-7 FEET AT TIMES. GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2-3
FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES TO END THE WEEK AND BEGIN THE WEEKEND DUE TO LINGERING
EFFECTS FROM A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 54 70 54 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 83 51 71 50 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 82 53 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 82 53 71 52 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 54 69 54 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 54 69 54 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 84 54 72 54 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 79 51 68 53 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 81 52 70 54 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 75 51 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066-
067-069-070.
AM...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-676.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...CULVER
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