931
FXUS62 KMFL 210505
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1205 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ENJOY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THROUGH
THE START OF THE WEEKEND THANKS IN PART TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SET UP OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NORTHWEST MID-
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A VERY DRY (PWAT < 0.5") AND RELATIVELY
COOL AIRMASS DOWN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN US WILL ALSO KEEP
LOW-LEVEL WINDS NORTHERLY. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR
ZERO THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION, WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ALONG THE GULF COAST, AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO. THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE APPARENT TEMPERATURES
(WIND CHILL VALUES) THAT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AREAS, WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO AN EAST/EAST-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION IN SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KICK START A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND AS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING DAILY HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80 ACROSS
MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, DURING THIS
SAME TIME FRAME EARLY NEXT WEEK, LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL RE-
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND CAUSE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO
START SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT SOME
LEVEL OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION. PWATS WILL
BE ON THE RISE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY BACK TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. WITH THE ELONGATED TROUGHING PROVIDING SOME FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND A MORE MOIST AIR MASS RETURNING, LOW CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN MOST DAYS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THESE SHOWERS WOULD BE SHALLOWER AND OF THE QUICK-HITTER
VARIETY WITH NO REAL THREAT FOR THUNDER. CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY EACH DAY EVEN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NW WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 15Z AND MAINTAINING
5-10 KTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
A MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL SET UP FOR TODAY AND
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STARTING TO VEER
EASTERLY TO END THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 4-6 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. GULF SEAS
WILL BUILD UP TO 3-4 FEET DURING THIS TIME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS FROM A
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 54 74 64 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 72 50 76 59 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 72 52 76 61 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 72 52 75 62 / 0 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 54 74 64 / 0 0 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 54 74 64 / 0 0 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 73 54 77 63 / 0 0 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 69 53 74 63 / 0 0 10 20
BOCA RATON 70 53 75 64 / 0 0 10 20
NAPLES 67 47 73 57 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...REDMAN
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