885
FXUS62 KMFL 212345
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
645 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW
TEMPERATURES, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. LATEST HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE. IN TERMS OF WIND CHILLS, VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA, WHILE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S CAN BE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST. FOR MIAMI- DADE COUNTY SPECIFICALLY, THERE IS A LOWER-END
POSSIBILITY (GENERALLY NO GREATER THAN 20-25% CHANCE) OF WIND
CHILLS DROPPING BELOW 50 DEGREES. WHILE NOT ENTIRELY IMPOSSIBLE,
THIS IS GENERALLY UNLIKELY TO SPREAD INTO DENSELY URBAN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY (INCLUDING DOWNTOWN AND MIAMI BEACH).
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW DRIER, COOLER AIR TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL PROGRESS NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S., OUR WIND FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY THE END OF SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, THE UPPER 40S ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWEST FLORIDA,
AND INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN METRO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A MODERATING TREND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS GLADES,
HENDRY, AND COLLIER COUNTIES WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SAVE FOR SOME HIGHER VALUES AT THE
WARMER ATLANTIC COAST. IF THE WIND IS A TAD WEAKER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER BUT THE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY NOT DROP TOO MUCH AS THE WIND WILL PLAY
LESS OF A FACTOR IN THAT CALCULATION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST US NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL BRING BACK EASTERLY FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH MID TO LATE WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, INCREASING MOISTURE
AND W/SW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FL WHICH WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEXT
WEEK SHOW FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE SO THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN
LOW. HIGH AND LOW TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE
50S/60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SCT/BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR
GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY NW AROUND 5 KT BECOMING
VARIABLE AT TIMES, THEN NNE/NE AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
A MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 4-6 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS. GULF SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3-4 FEET DURING THIS TIME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS
FROM A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 54 75 64 78 / 0 0 10 10
WEST KENDALL 50 76 60 79 / 0 0 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 53 76 63 79 / 0 0 10 10
HOMESTEAD 53 76 62 78 / 0 0 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 54 74 65 76 / 0 0 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 54 74 65 77 / 0 0 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 54 77 63 80 / 0 0 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 52 74 63 76 / 0 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 53 75 65 78 / 0 10 10 10
NAPLES 47 72 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION/UPDATE...SRB
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