765
FXUS62 KMFL 160505
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1205 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNDAY
EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM AN SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON SUNDAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE THE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
LACKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOSENESS OF THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE, THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR AREAS, BUT AT THIS TIME THE UNCERTAINLY IS TO HIGH
TO MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST, DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. WILL
LET THE EVENING SHIFT AND OVERNIGHT SHIFT DECIDE IF FOG NEEDS TO
BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S OVER MOST AREAS, EXCEPT AROUND 70
OVER THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 80S EXCEPT AROUND 80 OVER THE WEST COAST METRO
AREAS. HEAT INDICES COULD GET UP TO AROUND 90 OVER THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN A WEAKENING STATE AS IT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY AND DYNAMICS RACE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY LOW DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY, AS WELL AS NO MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY, IT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS
TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY USHERING IN SOME
RELIEF FROM THE PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS,
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE HIGHS COULD STILL RISE INTO THE LOW
80S. WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT NEARBY, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
HELP TO ORGANIZE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AND NORTHERN GULF LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS COAST. WITH THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION, AS WELL AS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION, ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE (PWATS ~ 1.2-1.4"), AT THIS TIME,
MODELS ARE FORECASTING LITTLE RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST TO LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
CERTAINTY HAS RISEN FOR THE MID-WEEK FORECAST AS THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
AND GLOBAL MODEL SUITE ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. SOME DETAILS
STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT AS CHANGES ARE STILL EXPECTED, SUCH AS
INTENSITY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAY INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AS WELL AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS.LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. AGAIN, ANOTHER UNCERTAIN FACTOR THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING VEERING WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO ESCORT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
BREEZY SE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME S/SW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF 20-25
KTS. SW WINDS THIS EVENING RELAX TO 5-10 KTS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
FOR MENTION AT THIS ISSUANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO
MORE OF A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE WINDS
WILL THEN SWING TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
ATLANTIC SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET REST OF THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT COULD GET UP TO 6 FEET IN PALM BEACH ATLANTIC
WATERS TONIGHT. THE GULF SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS REST OF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS GOING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE WINDS WILL SWING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, BUT
THE SPEEDS WILL STILL BE IN THE BREEZY CONDITONS. THEREFORE, THE
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST OF THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 85 68 79 68 / 10 10 10 10
WEST KENDALL 86 66 80 66 / 10 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 86 66 80 66 / 10 10 10 10
HOMESTEAD 85 67 80 68 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 67 77 68 / 10 10 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 85 67 77 68 / 10 10 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 87 68 81 68 / 10 10 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 86 65 75 65 / 10 10 0 10
BOCA RATON 85 66 77 67 / 10 10 0 10
NAPLES 81 63 79 63 / 10 20 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...CMF
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