151
FXUS62 KMFL 161203
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
703 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST
THIS MORNING TO CAPTURE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND MORE CLOSELY.
MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN THE MID 70S AND SHOULD WARM UP SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OBSERVATIONS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT IN CASE ADDITIONAL UPDATES
ARE NECESSARY. HAVE A WONDERFUL SUNDAY!
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
A STRONG LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US TOWARDS FLORIDA. THE SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE PENINSULA AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD, AND AS A RESULT, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT DROPS ALONG THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
COMBINED WITH MEAGER MOISTURE (FORECAST PWATS BELOW 1 INCH)
WILL HELP INHIBIT ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE REGION NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR OVER THE REGION, LEADING TO
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY DROP TO THE LOW 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR, AND UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
SOME RELIEF FROM THE INCESSANT WARMTH WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND STALLS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS
ON MONDAY. FORECAST HIGHS TO START THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON TUESDAY AS WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA SHIFT FROM THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY'S PRESENCE, ALONG
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THANKS TO THE EASTERLY FLOW, COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS (POPS IN THE 15-25% RANGE).
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STRONG CYCLONE
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STATES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
SUPPORTED BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US, DRAGGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL APPROACH, WHICH COULD ENHANCE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, THERE STILL
REMAINS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THIS CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT, AND REGARDING THE TIME OF
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR REGION, WHICH COULD
GREATLY IMPACT THIS FORECAST AND RESULT IN HIGHER OR LOWER
CHANGES FOR RAIN OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW, KEEPING POPS
IN THE LOW-END RANGE FOR THIS EVENT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD RISE TO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON WEDNESDAY, BUT COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
BREEZY SE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME S/SW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF 20-25
KTS. SW WINDS THIS EVENING RELAX TO 5-10 KTS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
LOW CIGS COULD BRING BOUTS OF SUB-VFR THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE WIND BECOMES NNW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WILL
BE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET REST OF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT COULD GET UP TO 6 FEET IN PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
THE GULF SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS REST OF THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 205 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TODAY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT AND INTO
THE NEW WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 85 68 79 69 / 10 10 10 10
WEST KENDALL 86 66 80 65 / 10 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 86 66 80 67 / 10 10 10 10
HOMESTEAD 85 67 80 68 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 67 77 68 / 10 10 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 85 67 77 67 / 10 10 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 88 68 81 68 / 10 10 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 86 65 75 66 / 10 10 0 0
BOCA RATON 86 66 77 67 / 10 10 0 10
NAPLES 81 63 79 63 / 10 20 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...RAG
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